In bellwether states, Mitt Romney surges ahead

The former governor of Massachusetts is now consistently running first in most Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

from the June 15, 2007 edition

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Broad support in bellwether states

The latest CNN/WMUR NH Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, puts Romney at 28 percent among likely Republican voters, with Mr. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona tied at 20 percent each.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, who formed an exploratory campaign committee on June 1, came in at 11 percent in the CNN/WMUR poll. Early predictions that Mr. Thompson would hurt Romney proved unfounded, says survey center director Andy Smith, who credits Romney's early TV ad campaign with his rise in the polls. In the last CNN/WMUR poll, conducted in April, Giuliani and Senator McCain tied for the lead in New Hampshire with 29 percent each, and Romney had 17 percent.

"He's been here a lot; he's using his time here pretty well, in that he's going to multiple places whenever he comes to the state," says Mr. Smith. "He has pretty decent favorability numbers, because he was known from Massachusetts."

Smith also says the debates have helped Romney, putting him on the same stage with the better-known candidates. In a comparison of the April and June polls, Romney gained the lead by winning the support of conservative voters. Romney also came in first on "likability" – winning 32 percent of GOP voters on that score, versus 28 percent for Giuliani, 12 percent for McCain, and 10 percent for Thompson.

But there is plenty in the latest poll to give Romney's rivals hope. One big factor is that few voters have firmly decided whom they will support on primary day in January. Among Republicans in New Hampshire, only 6 percent say they have definitely decided, 37 percent say they are "leaning" toward a particular candidate, and 57 percent have "no idea."

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