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Samarra shrine attack: less incendiary now?

Wednesday's attack on the Askariya shrine mirrored a 2006 bombing at the Shiite holy site, but this strike may not spark the same sectarian bloodshed.

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In a joint statement, the US ambassador, Ryan Crocker, and military commander Gen. David Petraeus called the attack "a deliberate attempt by Al Qaeda to sow dissent."

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The Askariya shrine holds the tombs of two Shiite imams who died 1,200 years ago. It is located near the place where many Shiites believe the 12th and final Shiite Imam was "occulted," or taken into hiding by God until a time when he'll return to earth to restore justice and defeat evil. This figure is known as the Mahdi, and Mr. Sadr is a firm believer in his return, hence the name of his Mahdi Army.

Though the site has been a place of worship for centuries, it has been rebuilt and expanded many times. The mosque, in its current configuration, dates from the early 20th century. Though not as architecturally significant as, say, St. Peter's in Rome, the symbolic importance of the site to millions of Shiites is vast.

Though it seems unlikely that the paroxysms unleashed by the last attack on the shrine will be repeated, Iraq is still highly unstable.

Sadr said he was suspending his parliamentary bloc's participation in the government until work started on rebuilding the shrine. Promises to rebuild after the first attack were not met.

There were also signs that the US military's surge of troops into Baghdad, which peaked this month, is not yet getting sustainable results.

Anecdotal evidence in Baghdad makes it appear that sectarian killings have been rising in recent weeks. That impression was supported by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon. In a quarterly report to the Security Council that his office released on Monday, Mr. Ban said that "while there was a brief lull in the level of sectarian violence early in the reporting period, it now appears that militia forces are resuming their activities, including targeted killings and kidnappings."

Prime Minister Maliki is also struggling to hold his coalition together even as he comes under pressure from US officials over making progress on sectarian reconciliation. Key to this effort is passing an oil law that ensures Sunnis a larger share of the country's oil wealth. Maliki's security forces are also under strain.

On Wednesday, Lt. Gen. Martin Dempsey told Congress that of the 188,000 Iraqi police trained by the US in the 18 months before January, between 8,000 and 10,000 had been killed in action, 6,000 to 8,000 had received wounds so severe that they could no longer serve, and about 5,000 had deserted. A further 7,000, he said, are unaccounted for.

"On average, about 25 percent of the force is on leave at any given time, and they're not going on vacation," General Dempsey said. "It may sound simple, but a significant portion of this is for soldiers taking leave to physically take money home to their families in the absence of things like direct deposit and electronic banking."

Associated Press material was used in this report.

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