Hamas nearly wins control of Gaza

The Islamic militants will have to decide what type of rule to establish in Gaza and whether to consolidate the gain or push the fighting into the West Bank, where its militias are much weaker.

"If we see continued Hamas control over Gaza, we will be in a new paradigm," says Ron Pundak, director of the Peres Center for Peace in Tel Aviv and an architect of the Oslo Peace accords.

Israel, Egypt, the Arab League, and the international community will all need to recalibrate foreign policies to account for two different Palestinian entities, Mr. Pundak says. "In my mind, what we have to ask is how to prevent this from spreading into the West Bank and how to strengthen the counterrevolutionary forces – because this is a revolution."

"I would like to see Israel dealing differently with the Palestinian Authority and Abbas in the West Bank" by freeing up restrictions on Palestinian travel and releasing prisoners, he says.

It wouldn't be the first time the West Bank and Gaza were under separate political regimes. During the 19 years preceding Israel's conquest of the territories in the 1967 Six-Day War, the West Bank was part of Jordan while Gaza was administered by Egypt. Under the Israeli-Palestinian peace accords, the two territories were recognized as one economic entity, and Israel committed to building a transportation artery to allow free passage of Palestinians back and forth.

Palestinians have accused Israel's policy of frequent closures of Gaza's borders and a ban on Gazans traveling to the West Bank as an effort to create a de facto separation.

The historic Gaza-West Bank divide

For years, a socioeconomic gap has existed between the two regions. The West Bank, with more natural resources, more arable land for agriculture, and a larger middle class enjoys a per capita gross domestic product that is 30 percent higher than that of the Gaza Strip, according to Samir Barghouti, an economist who directs the Arab Center for Agricultural Development in Ramallah.

A robust middle class has made the West Bank less receptive to the influence of religious fundamentalists, the economist says. "In Gaza, the middle class is very weak, and the influence of the poor, who are looking for radical solutions, is stronger."

Mr. Barghouti says he expected that a Hamas-run Gaza Strip would fall under the orbit of Egypt, while the West Bank would be influenced by Israel and Jordan.

"The consequences of Hamas taking over Gaza means that we are losing 40 years of struggle; we are losing the Palestinian national dream," he says. "We will have two separate entities. This was not the goal of the Palestinian national movement. "

• Safwat al-Kahlout contributed to this report from Gaza.

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