Republican '08 hopefuls seek distance from Bush

It is Bush's controversial plan for immigration reform that has given Republican candidates a safe place to go to bash the president – especially after his speech in Georgia on May 29, in which he stated that those who want to kill the legislation "don't want to do what's right for America" and are trying to "frighten people." That set off conservative talk radio hosts and bloggers, energizing opposition to the plan.

Bush's Georgia speech and conservative backlash were "a seminal moment," says Michael Franc of the Heritage Foundation. "That set things off and it probably won't go away, especially when there are other potentially divisive issues coming down the pipeline," such as reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind education reform.

Mr. Franc adds that, with Bush's overall job approval among Republicans well down from where it once was, in the 90s, a sizable slice of the GOP electorate is now receptive to a negative message against the president. Criticizing him is not risky when the pool of disgruntled Republican voters is one-third to more than one-half of the potential primary electorate, depending on the issue, Franc says.

A wild card in Bush-bashing calculus

One wild card in the Bush-bashing calculations of presidential candidates may be Newt Gingrich, the Republican former speaker of the House who is still considering jumping into the '08 race and has been an increasingly vocal critic of the Bush administration. Mr. Gingrich has a following; he polls in the high single digits in the GOP field among Republican voters, fifth among 12 candidates or quasi-candidates.

If Gingrich does decide to run, his open warfare with the White House would undoubtedly become a feature of the campaign and, if it proves effective, could spur other major candidates to follow his lead. In a recent interview with The New Yorker, Gingrich called the Republican Party in "collapse," implying that Bush is to blame. And in a speech last Friday to the American Enterprise Institute, Gingrich warned that if the Republicans run a "stand-pat" presidential candidate who is seen as "representing four more years," the party will lose.

Ever since Nicolas Sarkozy won the French presidential election last month – succeeding a member of his own party, Jacques Chirac, while being a harsh critic of him – Gingrich has pointed to that victory as a model for the GOP in the US. "In France, voting for change meant voting for the party in office, but not the personality in office," Gingrich wrote recently.

Some observers say that it's too late for any of the major GOP candidates to run against Bush. "[Sarkozy] overtly ran away from Chirac long ago," says Mr. Fabrizio.

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