Held up as regional model, Kazakhstan's stability falters

A political drama is being played out between the president and a son-in-law with presidential aspirations.

from the June 12, 2007 edition

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Mr. Aliyev, who has since been released on bail, claimed in a newspaper interview that the charges were politically motivated and only came about after he told Nazarbayev in private that he planned to stand for the Kazakh presidency when his father-in-law's second term ends in 2012. Aliyev has criticized Nazarbayev in Kazakh media outlets he owns, accusing him of authoritarianism and backsliding on promises to democratize, meanwhile promoting his own democratic credentials.

In an interview with the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta last week, for example, he claimed he was the instigator of Kazakhstan's bid to chair the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2009. "We should bring ourselves into line with European standards," said Aliyev, who also served as ambassador to the OSCE.

But many are skeptical of Aliyev's democratic rhetoric. His first stint as ambassador to Austria began in 2001 as an exile of sorts after a group of influential businessmen in Kazakhstan accused him of blackmailing his political rivals and the Kazakh press carried rumors of a planned coup against the president, leading to Aliyev's removal from his post in the security services. In 2005, the political climate had stabilized and Aliyev returned to Kazakhstan, becoming deputy foreign minister. Now, he seems to have fallen out of the president's good graces.

"In many ways, Kazakhstan is the Central Asian success story," says Michael Hall, Central Asia project director at the International Crisis Group in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. "But it remains to be seen whether political transition can follow economic progress. When Nazarbayev steps aside ... it will be a potentially dangerous time for the country."

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