US signals permanent stay in Iraq
Critics say a long-term US military presence may provoke greater Iraqi resistance of the 'occupier.'
from the June 12, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 3
An air-ground combo in the north?
Mr. Peters takes a different view, however, saying the minority Sunnis are starting to see the American presence in a different light as they wrangle with the majority Shiite population and government over Iraq's future. Still, even he assumes that any permanent US bases would have to be in the "pro-American" Kurdish north.
"I don't think we'd try to keep open bases the Iraqis didn't want," Peters says. His assumption is that the US plan would call for one or two air bases jointly located with ground-forces bases – something comprising about 30,000 troops.
Peters says he sees US discussion of permanent bases as part of planning for the possibility that Iraq may not hold together. A continued US presence then becomes a kind of caution light against jittery neighbors that may step up their intervention and openly take sides.
But he also sees some sense in the Korea analogy.
"The point is, our forces in Korea really have kept the peace, and they did allow South Korea, a country that was in ruins, to develop," he says. "By talking about Korea, they're talking about giving Iraq time to develop."
That reasoning assumes that a long-term US presence will aid in Iraq's stability and development – something not everyone agrees can be assumed.
"We are going to have to be in Iraq for a number of years still, but to talk in terms of a number of decades is not helpful," says Brookings' O'Hanlon. "Despite our best efforts, we have been part of the reason for the turmoil in Iraq. We should not presuppose that our long-term presence will be beneficial."
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