US signals permanent stay in Iraq

"The reason these ideas were floated out of the White House now basically lies in the context of all the speculation and congressional debate over a big drawdown being just over the horizon," says Michael O'Hanlon, a military affairs expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"This is the Bush administration wanting to send a message of resolve, to Americans but mostly to the Iraqi people," he adds. "If Iraqi leaders believe we are getting ready to leave, they are more likely to focus on preparing for full-blown civil war and less on the steps needed for national reconciliation."

The Korea comparison and comments from military officers in Iraq suggest the US may be contemplating a long-term presence in Iraq of 30,000 to 50,000 troops – perhaps one-quarter of the numbers there today. But many experts caution against equating Iraq in the 21st century with South Korea in the 20th.

"The analogy doesn't make sense," says Mr. O'Hanlon. "South Korea was threatened by an external enemy. Iraq is threatened by internal chaos."

Others single out the perception of US forces as the essential difference between the two cases.

"Korea was pro-American, and there was a sense of common cause in the face of the communist threat," says Stanford's Diamond.

Planning permanent bases in Iraq could backfire and set back the progress the US has made against Al Qaeda by turning some newly acquired US allies back into opponents, Diamond adds.

"Certainly this would not sit well with the Sunnis, who are finally willing to engage with us and ally with us against Al Qaeda," he says. "If we start talking about permanent bases with 30,000 troops, they'll go back to seeing us as something they need to resist."

AN AIR-GROUND COMBO IN THE NORTH?

Mr. Peters takes a different view, however, saying the minority Sunnis are starting to see the American presence in a different light as they wrangle with the majority Shiite population and government over Iraq's future. Still, even he assumes that any permanent US bases would have to be in the "pro-American" Kurdish north.

"I don't think we'd try to keep open bases the Iraqis didn't want," Peters says. His assumption is that the US plan would call for one or two air bases jointly located with ground-forces bases – something comprising about 30,000 troops.

Peters says he sees US discussion of permanent bases as part of planning for the possibility that Iraq may not hold together. A continued US presence then becomes a kind of caution light against jittery neighbors that may step up their intervention and openly take sides.

But he also sees some sense in the Korea analogy.

"The point is, our forces in Korea really have kept the peace, and they did allow South Korea, a country that was in ruins, to develop," he says. "By talking about Korea, they're talking about giving Iraq time to develop."

That reasoning assumes that a long-term US presence will aid in Iraq's stability and development – something not everyone agrees can be assumed.

"We are going to have to be in Iraq for a number of years still, but to talk in terms of a number of decades is not helpful," says Brookings' O'Hanlon. "Despite our best efforts, we have been part of the reason for the turmoil in Iraq. We should not presuppose that our long-term presence will be beneficial."

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