Democratic strategist: Party has no easy path to White House in '08

The collapse of immigration reform efforts in the Senate Thursday evening will add to the Republican party's reputation for incompetence. But despite poll numbers showing voters are overwhelmingly unhappy with the country's direction, Democrats should not expect an easy path in the 2008 presidential election.

That's the view of Robert Shrum, a veteran Democratic political strategist and speechwriter who was the guest at Friday's Monitor breakfast with reporters. Mr. Shrum was a senior adviser in the Gore and Kerry campaigns, and during his career advised eight Democratic presidential contenders.

In the battle of ideas, Democrats are losing to Republicans, according to Shrum who is now a senior fellow at New York University's Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. He described former Vice President Al Gore as having to weigh another presidential run against his status as "a prophet on a global scale." And he said that any candidate attacking Mitt Romney for his Mormon faith "will be punished" by voters.

Shrum, who retired from political consulting after Kerry's 2004 loss, said his new book "No Excuses: Confessions of a Serial Campaigner" is an opportunity to accurately describe the "flawed heroes" for whom he had worked.

"So much of what is written about politics is stick-figured dramas played out against papier-mâché curtains," he said. "All these folks were human beings and it was an honor to work for them.... They are more appealing as human beings than they are as ... artificial constructs."

One such human being, whom Shrum rarely praises, is President Bush. But on the subject of immigration reform, "I think George W. Bush tried very hard to do the right thing here," Shrum said. "I think he tried it out of genuine conviction and I also think he tried it because he understands, as Karl Rove understands, that the permanent alienation of Hispanics from the Republican party ... is doom for Republican prospects for the future."

Late Thursday evening, supporters of immigration reform legislation could only muster 45 of the 60 votes they needed to cut off debate and move towards a final vote, stalling and perhaps killing the legislation. Shrum said the short-term political impact of the vote is to "create the sense again that the Bush administration can't do anything. They can't do [hurricane] Katrina, they can't do Iraq, they can't do immigration."

Recent polls indicate voters are dissatisfied with the country's direction. In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, 73 percent of those surveyed said the country was on the wrong track while only 25 percent said it was on the right track.

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