China balks at emissions caps

Quantifiable limits on CO2 emissions, he added, "would hamper their efforts to achieve industrialization. It is quite inevitable that during this stage, China's energy consumption and CO2 emissions will be quite high."

At the same time, he pointed out, China's greenhouse-gas emissions per head of population is about one-fifth of the US rate, and one third of the average in developed countries.

Beyond these disclaimers, however, the plan shows that "Beijing is getting to grips with what climate change means for China and what China means for climate change," says the diplomat. Even though, as a developing country, China is not obliged by the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its CO2 output, "it is putting itself in a positive frame" he adds.

China's targets to increase efficiency

The plan's key goal is to reduce the amount of energy needed to produce one unit of GDP by 20 percent by 2010. For example, for every $1 of economic output, China hopes to use, one day, 20 percent less energy. But at current rates, economic growth will outstrip the targeted 4-percent per year reduction, meaning there will be no overall reduction in emissions. [Editor's Note:The original version misstated the amount of economic output that would be affected.]

"By 2025, China might be able to stabilize, and even reduce emissions in absolute terms," predicts Professor Pan. "But for the time being that is not possible."

For the first time, observers here say, the plan sets out the cost to China of continued global warming, ranging from extreme weather events to melting glaciers that it warns will "have immense impact on socioeconomic development."

The 62-page report also points out that as China urbanizes and industrializes even faster, its reliance on coal for nearly 70 percent of its energy will make it even harder to combat climate change.

One target the plan reiterates is to increase the use of renewable energy sources – such as hydropower, biofuel and wind-power – from 7 percent today to 10 percent by 2010 and to 16 percent by 2020. The government is also pledging to increase China's forest cover to 20 percent, to boost the natural absorption of some of the CO2 the country's factories emit.

At the same time, the plan pins considerable hope on technological advances to burn coal more cleanly, capture and store CO2 emitted from refineries, cement factories and steel mills, and to conserve energy.

Pleading with developed countries to share such technology, which the UN Convention on Climate Change promises, Ma complained that "We have heard a lot of thunder, but we have not seen the rainfall."

He welcomed a US offer to share bio-fuel technology, and called President Bush's proposal last week that 15 major energy producers and consumers should set global greenhouse gas limits on "a positive shift of attitude."

Ma also said he shared Mr. Bush's insistence that "our efforts to fight climate change must not come at the expense of economic growth."

But he warned that the new White House initiative should be seen as "a useful complement" to the UN Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, "not a substitute."

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