Climate debate heats up G-8

Some, though, say Washington's approach in the end may help prod a ponderous UN process. While setting an "aspirational" goal might seem out of touch with calls for binding commitments, environmental treaties often set a broad goal, which is turned into action through each country's process of ratification and enacting enabling legislation, said James Connaughton, head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, at a May 31 press briefing. Citing fisheries agreements as an example, he noted that, "You agree on goals in the international process [and] you implement them through national strategies that include binding measures."

Such an approach could be attractive to rapidly growing countries such as India and China, which say binding commitments could unfairly place a drag on their economic growth. Both the Kyoto Protocol and its parent document, the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, acknowledge that developed countries have a responsibility to move first on global warming. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, the cumulative emissions these countries have pumped into the air are responsible for rising global average temperatures, scientists say.

But all parties agree that for emissions controls to be truly effective, countries such as China, India, and Brazil must be brought into the process. Beijing is slated to release on Monday its own climate-change strategy in advance of attending the G-8 meeting as an observer.

"The acid test of Heiligendamm will be getting the unconstrained powers to commit" beyond 2012, says John Kirton, director of the G-8 Research Group at the University of Toronto. "They don't have to define the nature of the post-Kyoto regime, but it is fundamentally important that they agree to do something."

The flexibility of the US proposal, he suggests, "is more to bring the unconstrained on board."

Some US specifics

While some have complained that the US plan is vague, it has one very specific target – the 18-month time frame for coming up with provisions that are more specific, Mr. Kirton says. This is key because Bush will still be president then, he says. In his view Bush is not, as some observers see it, stalling until he is out of office.

The Bush administration is not alone in its thinking. In 2005, the nonpartisan Pew Center on Global Climate Change published recommendations for making progress toward a post-Kyoto 2012 agreement. The report was based on discussions the group had with government and business representatives from 15 countries, including the leading emitters.

Among the options the group outlined: setting up an informal dialogue to develop a consensus on what to do beyond 2012 and allowing countries to take different tacks to meeting binding commitments. Both are reflected in the Bush plan.

But the plan also differs in at least two key aspects, notes Elliot Diringer, Pew's director of international strategies. Unlike the Bush strategy, he says, diverse approaches must be part of "a system of commitments" through an overarching international agreement. "You allow for different types of commitments, but they need to be commitments," he says. The Bush plan, at least in its current form, remains only a voluntary one where it matters most, he continues. "We've tried the voluntary approach here at home and internationally, and it hasn't worked," he says.And while the president's proposal focuses on medium- and long-term goals, near-term goals are vital, too, Mr. Diringer says. "For this administration, this new plan is a step forward. But it falls well short of what's needed." Still, some European analysts see reason for hope in the Bush plan."There was a stalemate just a few days ago because Bush was saying, 'I can't agree to most of the terms of the proposal on the table.' Now he is acknowledging that there is a need for long-term targets, that he takes the whole climate problem seriously, and that he is willing to work with other countries do something about it," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a key adviser to Chancellor Merkel on environmental issues. "We are all in the run-up to a really new regime, and if that regime is tailored by the Americans, that would be most welcome."

Page: 1 | 2