After historic talks, US seeks action by Iran

"Virtually everything Iran is doing in Iraq is highly covert, so it could take months for ... our military to establish whether Iran is fulfilling any promises it might make to cease activities such as gun-running to Shiite militias, moving EFPs across the border," and so on, says Wayne White, an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

EFPs, or Explosively Formed Penetrators, are an especially lethal type of roadside bomb that the Pentagon says is coming into Iraq from Iran and is used by Shiite extremists to target US soldiers.

Just stopping the arrival and use of EFPs in Iraq would be progress for the US. But opponents of the dialogue on the US side, focused in Vice President Dick Cheney's office and a number of conservative Washington think tanks and policy consultants, see bigger reasons to oppose any diplomatic effort toward Iran.

Opponents of the talks say they could open the door to Iran developing a nuclear weapon and extending its influence in the region even further.

"The US-Iran talks are deeply unpopular among some elements in Washington and Tehran," says Mr. Cole. "The Cheney camp is reported to be opposed to them, and the arrests [in Iran] of Iranian-American academics in recent days may well be an attempt by some in the camp of [President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad to sabotage these talks."

Steven Clemons, publisher of the Washington Note blog and director of the American strategy program at the New American Foundation in Washington, goes further. He says his recent discussions with some White House officials indicate Mr. Cheney "fears that the president is taking diplomacy with Iran too seriously."

Cheney, Mr. Clemons says, believes Bush is committing a "disastrous mistake" by talking to Iran.

In Iran, the more extremist elements aligned with Mr. Ahmadinejad believe Iran has extended its power and influence in the region over recent years by standing up to the US, not talking to it.

For now, the US-Iran dialogue suggests a new pragmatism. But more immediately, the US is concerned about Iran's growing influence in the south, Cole says. He notes that the Iraqi political party most closely aligned with Iran, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) , controls nine of 11 provincial administrations where there are substantial Shiite populations, including Baghdad. In addition, the SIIC's Badr Brigade militia has recently stepped up its participation in a ferocious battle by SIIC to take over Basra, at the hub of Iraq's rich southern oil fields, from another Shiite group, the Islamic Virtue Party or Fadhila. "Control of Basra would mean control of refineries and gasoline smuggling, worth billions," says Cole.

Hafeid says Iran wants the US out of Iraq. But by emphasizing in Monday's talks that the US has not done enough to train and equip Iraq's new security forces, the Iranians seemed to be suggesting it doesn't want the US to leave just yet.

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