An uproar over '08 primary calendar

Florida's decision to move its primary to Jan. 29 in defiance of both parties' rules fuels speculation about penalties.

from the May 25, 2007 edition

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Now, with the front-loading trend, the importance of money is bigger than ever. If other states move up their primaries to Jan. 29, only those candidates with the biggest war chests will be able to compete in all those states. The cost of Florida's expensive media market alone could force some candidates to skip that contest.

If the parties stick to their guns and punish the candidates who campaign in states that have scheduled primaries outside the prescribed "window," that could have the result of skewing the nominations, especially for the Democrats.

Under both parties' rules, any state (except Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina) that holds its primaries or caucuses earlier than Feb. 5, 2008, will lose delegates. Candidates would also be penalized for campaigning in a state too early. On the Democratic side, half of the regular delegates would be lost, as would half of the superdelegates – members of Congress and the governor, if he or she is a Democrat. On the Republican side, the sanction is to lose half of the regular delegates. In a delegate-rich state like Florida, the loss of so many delegates could cost a candidate the nomination.

But some observers predict the problem will be solved by having the violating states schedule later caucuses that are the real nominating contests. The early primaries would, in effect, be "beauty contests." But history has shown that such early nonbinding contests are taken seriously by candidates and voters, and can still have a winnowing effect on a field of candidates.

Another point is clear, political analysts say: The early states do have an outsize effect on who wins the nomination.

"People in different regions tend to look favorably on people from their own region," says William Mayer, an expert on the primaries at Northeastern University in Boston. "That's one reason Massachusetts politicians – Michael Dukakis, John Kerry, and now Mitt Romney – have done well."

Florida opted to move up its primary to give its large, diverse state greater say in the nomination process. In the current lineup, the first four states are small and quirky. Florida is also a swing state in the general election, and advocates for Florida's early primary argue that winning that contest will provide an indication of who can do well in November 2008.

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