Forecast: expect more hurricanes
Hurricane season this year could bring as many as five high-intensity storms, forecasters say.
from the May 23, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
This year, however, the Atlantic is unlikely to get that kind of help, forecasters say. El Niño has dissipated, and NOAA forecasters suggest its opposite, La Niña, may take its place this year. This, combined with other atmospheric and ocean indicators in the Atlantic, suggests that the stage is set for a busy season.
The seasonal outlooks come at a time of some angst – and urgency – regarding the future of research aimed at improving forecasts of individual storms.
During Tuesday's briefing, NOAA administrator Conrad Lautenbacher Jr. highlighted the $300 million the US is spending to support hurricane research and operational forecasting.
Last week, however, the National Hurricane Center's director publicly chided his bosses at NOAA headquarters in Washington for cutting the National Weather Service's research budget. According to NOAA officials in Washington, the agency is spending some $1.5 million over two years on activities to celebrate 200 years of federally funded science research.
The costs of those celebrations equal the cuts the weather service faces in its severe-storm research program, according to an analysis earlier this month by Kei Koizumi, the budget guru at the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
NOAA's research portfolio as a whole is being cut by nearly 10 percent over 2007's allotment. Many of the cuts result from Congress's decision to forgo earmarks, in which lawmakers can funnel money toward research projects federal agencies may or may not have on their wish lists.
The need for increased hurricane research is outlined in a report from the National Research Council in January that argues for a sustained, coordinated national hurricane research initiative.
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