Can Richardson catch fire in '08 campaign?

Nevada, which has an early caucus and a large Hispanic population, could be key to his prospects, analysts say.

By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the May 23, 2007 edition

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Washington - On paper, Gov. Bill Richardson (D) of New Mexico has the résumé of a top-tier presidential candidate: a two-term governor, 14 years as a member of Congress, secretary of Energy under President Clinton, and former United Nations ambassador.

As the son of a Mexican mother and half-Mexican father, Governor Richardson also has the potential to win a significant portion of the Hispanic vote, one of the fastest-growing segments of the US electorate.

So far, in the early going of the 2008 presidential nomination battle, Richardson has remained mired in low single digits in national polls of Democratic voters. Many voters still don't know who he is, as Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards have dominated news coverage from the start and built the biggest campaign war chests.

Now that Richardson has formally declared his candidacy, the ultimate question looms: Can he pull all the pieces together and fulfill his potential? Already, in the most important states in the nomination schedule, there are signs that the picture is shifting.

The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Richardson at 10 percent in Iowa, where caucuses start the process in January. In New Hampshire, home of the first primary, independent pollster John Zogby now shows Richardson at 10 percent. Ultimately, Nevada, with a large and growing Hispanic population and perhaps an affinity for a fellow Westerner, could be key to Richardson's prospects, as the state holds early nominating caucuses for the first time, analysts say.

"His best bet is probably to do well enough in Iowa to attract attention, win in Nevada, do very well in New Hampshire, and then generate national attention, along with a mixed result among the front-runners," says Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who is not affiliated with any of his party's presidential candidates. "From there, he could maneuver."

For all the second-tier candidates, the best hope is that the three people in line ahead of them self-destruct, but that's not something Richardson or the others can count on, Mr. Mellman adds.

Richardson knows that. In the first quarter of 2007, he raised $6.2 million, a sum that would have made for splashy headlines in previous election cycles. But in this overheated race to succeed President Bush, it placed Richardson at a distant fourth place in the money primary. Still, it is enough to make major ad buys in the early states, and that's exactly what he is doing.

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