Azeris caught in US-Iran tussle

Revolutionary activity in Iran in the early 1900s was centered in Tabriz, a majority ethnic Azeri city. After a failed attempt at autonomy in 1944, an ethnic Azeri group threw its weight behind the Islamic Revolution in the 1970s in the hopes of regaining their cultural rights, but those, too, were dashed.

The current nationalist movement, which has gathered strength since Azerbaijan's emergence, has been hamstrung by an internal lack of unity and threats from the Iranian government.

"We want to function systematically, not secretly," says Sadiq Isabeyli, head of public relations for the Baku branch of an Azeri Iranian activist group based in Iran. "But the government says we're enemies of the state and promote the interests of foreign countries and the United States."

Just how much the US has been supporting ethnic Azeris within Iran is unclear. A bulk of the funding is going to radio and television programming. Yet only one Azeri Iranian radio program – Window Into Iranian Azerbaijan – is broadcast into Iran, for only 10 minutes once a week. And support for the program, which comes from Voice of America – the US government's official radio and television service – started years earlier, says its host, Khadija Ismayilova.

The US has also courted ethnic Azeri activists, such as the prominent Mahmudali Chehrengali, granted asylum in the US several years ago, who claims that initial interest from various high-ranking officials has tapered off.

"The usual suspects in the administration who are hawkish have tried to pick up this issue [of tapping ethnic minorities in Iran], but cooler heads have prevailed," says Svante Cornell, research director of Johns Hopkins Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and an expert on Azerbaijan.

Why US backed off

Part of the moderates' cautionary message appears to be based on the US experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, which is rife with sectarian fighting.

"I think the US government is very cautious that it could influence the domestic policy in the country, because it has had such failures recently in that regard," says Patrick Clawson, deputy research director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a leading expert on Iran.

Analysts say there are several key reasons why the US has stepped back from working too closely with ethnic minorities: fear of alienating Persian Iranians who are well represented in the US, the Azeri movement's ultimate goal of full independence, and the desire to prevent antagonizing Iran.

"While not excluding any Iranian citizens, we're not targeting ethnic minorities," says a US official familiar with US policy in Iran. "To single them out is to support Iranian accusations that we want revolution."

Mr. Cornell agrees. "If you were going to do something serious and subversive in Iran, you would use the Azerbaijani minority," says Cornell. "But the US doesn't want to split up Iran; it wants to change it internally."

While the US may have backed off from supporting Iran's ethnic minorities, its desire for end results may be unchanged. "Right now the trend I see is that the US is hoping the minorities will do something as a unit," says Mr. Obali, the GunazTV head. "But having an interest and hoping for something doesn't necessarily mean they are going to spend money."

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