Fuse on the 'population bomb' has been relit

While the developed world deals with a 'birth dearth,' populations are exploding in developing nations. What the first world should do to help.

from the May 21, 2007 edition

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If today's fertility rate of 2.75 children for all women in the developing world continues, the world's population will reach 12 billion by 2050. The UN, however, projects the fertility rate will fall to 2.05 by 2045-50.

"It is unlikely the world's population will double again – ever," Ms. Zlotnik says. (Between 1950 and 2000, it did double.)

The rapid rise in the world's population has long been of concern to many. Vicky Markham, director of the Center for Environment and Population, in New Canaan, Conn., points out how all those extra people will need more space, food, water, and other natural resources. Fulfilling those needs could worsen global warming and harm other species on Earth. "It's pretty formidable," she says. And also unsustainable.

As if that weren't enough, a new study sees a political threat from rapid population growth. There is a correlation between countries with very young populations and those experiencing civic conflict, says Elizabeth Leahy, author of a report for Population Action International (PAI), a Washington advocacy group. This is relevant to the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Darfur (Sudan), and Gaza, for example.

Between 1970 and 1999, 80 percent of all civil conflicts that caused at least 25 deaths occurred in countries in which 60 percent or more of the population was under age 30, her study finds.

"It's a very complex issue," Ms. Leahy says. "There are multiple factors at play."

Nonetheless, her thesis is that governments and businesses in countries with young populations have a difficult time providing so many youths with education and "meaningful employment." The result can feed unrest and conflict.

Women in Iraq, where 69 percent of the population is under 30, have an average of 4.2 children. Afghan women have seven children. There, some 73 percent of the people are under 30. In Sudan, where women have an average of four children, 68 percent of the population is under 30.

Other nations with high birthrates include Pakistan, Nigeria, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Chad, Niger, and Yemen.

Zlotnik says the Leahy study is "a bit of an exaggeration." She notes that the world's most destructive and deadly wars have occurred in rich nations with older populations. But the PAI study points out that the eight new civil conflicts between 2000 and 2004 have risen in nations with very young populations.

Key remedies, according to Leahy, include improving access in poor nations to family planning and reproductive health services plus more equitable access to education and economic opportunities for women.

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