Another theater for US-Iran fallout: the South Caucasus
Armenia, an ally of both countries, shows how tensions between the two could upset the region's diplomatic balancing act.
from the May 21, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
"In the case of Iran and the United States, I think we're reaching that point," says Mr. Oskanian, who is Syrian-born and earned a masters degree at Tufts University in Medford, Mass.
Analysts say military conflict with Iran would be devastating for the region and many here fear that its effects could spill over into Iran's neighbors in the South Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
"God forbid, if there is military action against Iran, Armenia may get involved. And Azerbaijan as well," says Stiopa Safarian, director of research at the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, a think tank connected to the opposition Heritage Party.
In the worst-case scenario, Mr. Safarian says, it could reignite conflict between the two countries, which still stare each other down across disputed and heavily militarized cease-fire line near Iran.
Armenia spends $250 to $300 million a year on its military, largely because of the unsolved Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan spends more than three times that.
But politicians also worry that even if the current conflict stops short of military intervention, heightened tension between Iran and the West could shatter the delicate diplomatic balancing act in the region.
Armenia and Azerbaijan both have close ties to the United States and Iran, although Christian Armenia's ties have been steadier with Iran.
Despite Iran's sometimes tense relations with Azerbaijan, many analysts say the country plays a key balancing role in the region. Iran steadies relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and counterbalances the influence of Russia, a key regional power.
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