EU bid to wean itself off Russian gas: Nabucco pipeline

The pipeline would eventually pump gas from the Caspian region, including Iran, Iraq, and Russia – but would remain under European control, Mr. Mitschek says. At full operation, the pipeline is expected to supply Europe with 31 billion cubic meters of gas a year. Future plans call for the pipeline to be extended to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

Even with Nabucco, EU would still be dependent on Russia

But few analysts say Nabucco would allow Europe to break free from Russia altogether. The fact is, says Fariborz Ghadar, director of the Center for Global Business Studies at Penn State University, Europe's demand for natural gas, which could very soon replace oil as the continent's dominant energy source, is increasing too quickly.

That increase in demand conflicts with a decrease in natural gas production in Europe. By 2030, Europe could need to import as much as 80 percent of its natural gas, Prof. Ghadar says.

"Even if Nabucco happens, the reality is you really need more gas. The reality ... is that the gas is in Russia and it's in Iran. Right now, the Russians basically have a stranglehold on this whole thing," he says.

But Russia has its own dependencies, says Friedemann Müller, an energy expert at the German Institute for International Security Affairs in Berlin.

"Russia needs security of demand, that those who are on the other end of their pipelines will definitely buy their gas," says Dr. Müller. "This is a power game, and Putin is showing every day that he is in a powerful position, and we have to adjust to this new balance."

Lack of unity stalls EU pipeline projects

The EU has not moved quickly on the Nabucco project – originally scheduled to break ground next year – or other proposed pipeline projects, most of which are meant to diversify ways Europe receives Russian oil.

"The fact that Europeans have been talking about and delaying these things for so long really does suggest that such projects are not a high priority in any reasonable sense," says André Plourde, president of the International Association of Energy Economics.

One reason, analysts say, is that Europe is not as united on the threat of Russia's energy dominance as it seems. The newer member states, which made up the former Soviet bloc and still depend on Russia for a greater percentage of its energy than Western Europe, feel they are more vulnerable. Countries like Germany and France, are more pragmatic, seeing the EU and Russia as interdependent.

"This is a security and foreign policy issue, and it's about Europe being a united group," says Ms. Baran of the Hudson Institute. "Europe needs to look at energy not as something that heats the houses, but look at it increasingly as a security and foreign policy perspective because Putin uses it as such."

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