Giuliani losing steam in '08 presidential race

The former New York City mayor has been slipping in the polls as social issues – not security concerns – have dominated.

from the May 18, 2007 edition

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Giuliani's performance in debate

In the second GOP debate, held Tuesday night, Giuliani scored points for his fiery, assertive exchange with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas over the causes of 9/11. And Giuliani explained his abortion position with greater clarity: "I ultimately do believe in a woman's right of choice," he said, then followed with his oft-stated view that "I think there are ways in which we can reduce abortions."

Whether Giuliani can halt his slide and remain a top competitor for the nomination may depend on news events going forward, analysts say. Another terror attack on US soil, or other developments that keep the national conversation focused on security, could work to Giuliani's benefit. But a return in focus to the social issues – not just abortion, but also gay rights, end of life issues, and gun control - that have been bedrock voting issues for base Republican voters could finish Giuliani.

This week, the passing of the Rev. Jerry Falwell, a pioneer in the politicization of religious conservatives, has also brought renewed attention to the issues he had highlighted for decades. But the war in Iraq, the continuing terrorist threat, healthcare, and education remain at the top of voter concerns.

Last year, in fact, a survey by the Pew Research Center found that the biggest social issues, abortion and gay marriage, ranked at the bottom of a list of 19 issues that voters judged important. But within the core of the Republican electorate, these two issues are game changers. And following the Supreme Court's ruling last month upholding a federal ban on a type of abortion procedure, the ingredients are now in place for the next round in the abortion-rights battle.

Abortion-rights activists are expected to mount a campaign, going into the 2008 presidential race, pointing out that the next president may well be in a position to nominate one or more Supreme Court justices – and that if a Republican is elected, that could be the end of the nationwide right to abortion enshrined in Roe v. Wade. That argument has been made in past elections, but since the April ruling upholding the ban on so-called "partial-birth abortions," the message may carry more urgency.

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