No grand return for Pakistan's Bhutto

The self-exiled former premier has ruled out a political deal with President Musharraf.

from the May 17, 2007 edition

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Weighing legitimacy against stability

Calling off the deal is likely to worry some Western officials in Islamabad, who say that a Bhutto-Musharraf alliance topped their list of options for bringing greater stability to Pakistan.

"We think that a deal with the PPP would strengthen [Musharraf's] political base, which would strengthen his mandate to act against terrorism," says a Western official, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

But while such a deal may bring stability to Pakistani politics, many critics say Bhutto's return would effectively legitimize Musharraf's military dictatorship, delivering a grave blow to democracy.

"The deal was viewed as collusion. In one way, Musharraf's rule will be strengthened, and he'll probably be allowed to have another term," argues Sajjad Naseer, a political science professor at the Lahore School of Economics, adding that many doubt Musharraf would grant any real power to Bhutto even if she were prime minister.

Strengthening Musharraf would only undermine the democratic institutions needed to effectively address terrorism, Mr. Naseer adds.

"If the democratic process is given a chance to operate, this itself will dampen whatever extremism or terrorism exists. At least it will settle domestic politics at the moment," he says, adding that, with the deal seemingly called off, the prospect of the opposition parties uniting is better for stability in the long run.

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, with whom Bhutto had formed a political alliance, is also considering a return from exile. Mr. Sharif recently told The Times of London that Musharraf's power is "totally exhausted" and his fall is "simply a matter of time."

"I have every intention of going back to my country," the Times reported Sharif as saying.

Lost opportunities

But as Musharraf weakens, the chance to start a government of moderate parties is fading, Bhutto said.

"I think that if General Musharraf does that, he can bargain with the political parties. All the moderate parties should be included," Bhutto said. "But I can't talk about him having a chance right now because the passions are running so high in Karachi that people will not hear of it."

Talat Hussain, director of news at the Pakistani television station Aaj in Islamabad, says that Bhutto, sharing the same moderate views as Musharraf, is a natural ally. But the weaker Musharraf becomes, he adds, the more improbable a deal between Musharraf and Bhutto becomes.

"If she sees Musharraf truly weak and declining or falling, she will not go on with this deal," says Mr. Hussain. "If she believes Musharraf is going to stay strong she'll go through with this deal and come into Pakistan."

Bhutto says that she will return to Pakistan this year with or without a political solution. "No matter what, I am going back this year. I have to go back because I have been out for too long."

•David Montero contributed to this story from Islamabad, Pakistan.

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