Disaster alert? Check your cellphone.

California weighs using text messages to warn residents during emergencies.

from the May 15, 2007 edition

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"The real danger is that once a technology is implemented that you'll get all kinds of municipal spam," says Avi Greengart, principal analyst for mobile devices with Current Analysis, a market research firm in Virginia. "My kid's school calls my cellphone with automatic messages as stupid as 'the drop-off lane has shifted.' Well, frankly I don't care … and why are you using up my minutes?"

Mr. Garamendi assures that the California system would "only be used for true emergencies," determined by strict protocol. Text messages might also be paired with the warning tone familiarized by TV and radio alerts.

Then there's the question of who gets to issue warnings, and the related concern about false alarms – or even a hacker's prank – being broadcast.

Botterell, however, points out that "virtually nothing" happened when an operator accidentally activated the emergency broadcast system in 1971. "If you look at the actual research, panic is a very rare phenomenon," he says. And, as for people losing trust in the system, "it's not false alarms that cause people to desensitize," he adds, "it's irrelevant alarms."

Ensuring relevancy can be tricky. Different companies use cellphone towers and satellites in different locations, making it difficult to precisely target a message geographically.

One solution developed by Square Loop, a Virginia-based firm, is to put an applet, or small software program, on phones that would interpret warnings and judge their relevance before relaying them.

While at the moment this would require users to download additional software, there are several added benefits. Warnings can pinpoint very specific people, such as those who recently dined at the London hotel where the former Russian spy was poisoned. Location records stored on the phone remain private because it is the applet -- not the broadcaster – that looks at the logs.

The applet can also help solve some accessibility issues, says Joe Walsh with Square Loop. Deaf users can have emergency alerts vibrate, and text alerts can be read to blind users.

Both the federal government and California are thinking through issues of accessibility for the disabled and for non-English speakers. Those on both projects also emphasize that cellphone alerts won't replace other methods of notification.

"One technology by itself very rarely triggers a whole lot of action," says Botterell. Instead of compliance with emergency instructions, most people will gather more information first from TV, radio, or neighbors. "If they get enough corroboration from enough sources, then they become persuaded that it's not a false alarm."

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