Jihadis in New Jersey?

Jones has been tracking Al Qaeda attacks, and he says that through 2001, Al Qaeda averaged one attack per year. Since 9/11, he says, Al Qaeda has averaged about seven or eight attacks per year. "And they span a variety of places – in the Middle East, Asia, Europe," he says.

Though no link between Al Qaeda and the New Jersey group has been established, the target allegedly picked by the group is a classic terror target: the military. "This is traditional terrorism," says Dave Brannan, who teaches terrorism studies at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. "It's a symbolic target coupled with the religious terrorism – the catharsis of killing many, not just one."

Dr. Brannan goes on to say, "This plot appears to be theologically motivated, not just generally religious: They make repeated comments about how their brothers, their religion is under attack."

For example, the affidavit quotes one of the accused, Eljvir Duka, as stating, "and at the end when it comes to defending your religion, when someone is trying [to attack] your religion, your way of life, then you go jihad."

Yet John Mueller, a professor of national-security studies at Ohio State University, says the arrests don't prove there are countless groups dreaming up plots.

"After all the sleuthing, there are just a handful of people, and it is much inflated and exaggerated," says Mr. Mueller, author of a recent book about how federal officials and the terrorism industry inflate national-security threats. "But there is no question these guys are dangerous and should be in the slammer."

The latest group made the mistake of taking a video of their training exercises into a Circuit City to be copied on a DVD. A vigilant clerk, observing on the tape the men firing automatic weapons, calling for "jihad," and shouting "Allah Akbar" (God is great), phoned the police. This quickly led to the FBI's investigation and infiltration of the group.

Serious mistakes at start

Al Qaeda, in its infancy, also made serious mistakes, points out Mike Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Osama bin Laden unit. For example, they blew up a hotel in Yemen in 1992, but American soldiers had already left. Yet Al Qaeda continued to try until it succeeded: the 1993 bombings of the World Trade Center, and then the 2001 attacks, which is of course the clearest example.

Mr. Scheuer, who is now an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, adds that what people forget is that Mr. bin Laden's long-stated mission is to instigate and inspire attacks such as the one these men in New Jersey allegedly planned. "This is clearly an example of that," he says.

Since the US ran bin Laden and his cohorts out of Afghanistan in late 2001, the organization has morphed into a much looser network. There is still Al Qaeda central, which consists of bin Laden and his top aides who are hiding somewhere along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, according to Scheuer and other experts. Then there are affiliated groups, such as those in Iraq and other Middle East countries that most likely receive some funding from Al Qaeda; affiliated individuals, such as Ahmed Ressam, who was caught coming across the US's northern border in late 1999 and was convicted of conspiracy to commit an international terrorist act; and finally the unconnected groups or individuals who don't receive direction or funding from Al Qaeda central but are clearly inspired by the group.

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