Blueprint for greenhouse gases

The latest report on global warming reveals the trade-offs and uncertainties in forcing changes.

from the May 9, 2007 edition

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The IPCC report is helpful on other points:

• Higher taxes on fuel won't significantly force drivers to cut emissions. Autos that get more miles per gallon are needed.

• With a stiff tax on fossil fuels, the share of electricity generated from renewables – dams, wind, etc. – can rise from 18 percent to between 30 to 35 percent by 2030.

• Technology alone, such as capturing carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, cannot solve the climate challenge.

A degree of humility is found in this report, as it should be. The severity of climate change remains uncertain. As a result, determining the size of a carbon tax or a cap on emissions is "not ... unambiguous." It's difficult to know when the costs of action will exceed the benefits.

If climate change is gradual, the world can take gradual steps. If sudden change such as an Arctic cap meltdown can be predicted, "earlier and more stringent mitigation is economically justified," the report states. A better alert system for climate change would help.

Used with care, this report can provide a blueprint for managing the risks of an emission-reduction system that does the least harm.

The cure should not be worse than the bite.

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