Media power in the campaign
New web tools like social networking and high-quality video make campaigns more competitive, but other factors boost old media's power.
By Dante Chinnifrom the May 8, 2007 edition
Page 1 of 2
Washington - A month ago I asked for your thoughts about the media – what you liked, disliked, and didn't understand. I received scores of replies, most of which were full of thoughtful questions and comments. In coming weeks I hope to go through your questions carefully – even as I hope more arrive.
One theme in several of your e-mails concerned politics and why the press isn't covering a specific candidate you support. The question is a perennial one, but with a new wrinkle as 2008 approaches.
In the simplest terms, the media give the most ink, airtime, and Web pages to the candidates they feel have the best prospect of capturing either major party's nomination. And they determine that cast of characters by sorting through a combination of factors: the cash candidates have raised, the buzz in the party establishment, the candidate's history in big campaigns, an estimation of the candidate's appeal, public opinion polling data, and more.
Is it fair? Probably not. And while this alchemy can do a fairly decent job of predicting eventual winners sometimes, it can fail miserably at other times. Does anyone remember the unstoppable momentum Howard Dean had as he raced toward the Democratic nomination in 2004? Or how Texas Sen. Phil Gramm built a huge fundraising advantage going into the 1996 GOP primary season? Neither of them made it past February in their respective campaign years.
Until the votes from a few primaries are tallied, the fact is that nobody knows anything. It's all conjecture until people go to the polls during the drawn-out primary season and put the candidates in a real competition for real voters that everyone can watch. This has always been a guard against the media's anointing.
For the campaigns, however, especially those of outsiders, that year leading up to the primaries has always been a problem. There has been no way of stopping the press from telling the public who the favorites are, which hurts those that aren't. It's hard to build momentum with fundraisers and voters when the press says bad things about you or worse, ignores you.
Isn't this just a self-fulfilling prophecy, with the media as kingmaker? Not entirely. It is based on real factors, and not all candidates are created equal, at least in terms of organization, money, and electability. But the media do magnify those factors.
This coming election, though, is supposed to change those rules. Because 2008 is the first presidential race to come during the Web 2.0 revolution, it seems to offer candidates the opportunity to work around big media and the party establishment.
Polished websites can offer high-quality video. Blogs can help spread the word. Social networking can help create a grass-roots structure.
RSS feed
