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Iraq's neighbors weigh next steps after regional conference
Participating countries – including Syria and Iran – now face the test of fulfilling promises of security and economic aid.
By Howard LaFranchi | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitorfrom the May 7, 2007 edition
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SHARM El-SHEIK, EGYPT - Commitments to help Iraq with security and economic needs and to sponsor a conference on reconciliation are among the signs of a grudging acceptance by Sunni Arab neighbors of the Shiite-led government of Nouri al-Maliki.
That, and an apparent policy switch by the United States to try to draw Iraq's neighbors – including Syria and Iran – into an energized diplomatic process, may be the biggest accomplishments of the conference at this Red Sea resort last week, analysts say.
One gauge to watch: Does Vice President Dick Cheney build on results of Sharm el-Sheik as he tours the Middle East this week, or will a more muscular approach suggest ongoing conflict over diplomacy's role in dealing with Iraq?
More important still will be the response of the Maliki government in using any momentum from the meeting to press ahead on long-awaited political reforms and reconciliation. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) or Maine, accompanying other US lawmakers in Baghdad over the weekend, said she did not feel a sense of urgency from her Iraqi counterparts.
Last week, Iraq's neighbors went beyond the usual communiqué and verbal support by agreeing to set up working groups on border security, refugees, and energy supply. The Arab League also agreed to organize a meeting to help bridge Iraq's sectarian divides, though no date was set.
None of this means that Mr. Maliki's government is out of the woods, or that the conference was the kind of turning point in Iraq's relations with its neighbors that occurred with Bosnia or Afghanistan, for example. Suspicions remain high among the region's Sunni leaders, many of whom made clear that they are still waiting to see better treatment of Iraq's populations, especially minority Sunnis.
The best hope may be that the two-day conference was a "first step" toward bringing Iraq's neighbors on board to stabilize it, analysts say. But some wonder if Maliki's weakness and the troubled US surge could stymie progress.
"Its unlikely that one short meeting can make much of a difference," says James Dobbins, director of security studies at the Rand Corp. in Arlington, Va., and a former US diplomat. "On the other hand, the Bush administration's recognition, at long last, that all neighboring states need to be engaged and involved in stabilizing Iraq is the beginning of wisdom, and perhaps the start of a concerted effort to do so."
The US is emphasizing its concern by dispatching Mr. Cheney to the region on the heels of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit. Cheney leaves Tuesday for visits to Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates – and, of particular interest, Saudi Arabia.
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