Why Scots face historic election

A pro-independence party looks set to win the May 3 vote, 300 years after Scotland united with England.

from the May 3, 2007 edition

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Apart from the SNP, none of Scotland's main political parties are in favor of independence.

"A referendum is probably the single most damaging policy a political party has put in a Scottish election," says Labour's Scottish leader and First Minister, Jack McConnell. "That uncertainty and instability would lead to companies delaying investment, making preparations to leave or perhaps not to come to Scotland.... I think it would cause division, chaos ... real difficulties for Scotland."

The Scottish Liberal Democrats, coalition partners with Labour for the past eight years, could once again hold the balance of power if, as expected, the SNP wins but falls short of the 65 seats needed for an overall majority.

The Liberal Democrats' price for going into coalition with the SNP is likely to be a promise that a range of options will be put on the referendum ballot paper rather than a simple yes or no vote on independence.

Economic viability disputed

One key point if Scotland is to ever become independent is the question of North Sea oil revenues. The oil fields lie off the Scottish coast and the SNP says it wants the UK government to return the income to Scotland.

But Scotland would also stand to lose: At the moment it receives more per head in UK government support than England because of the difficulty of delivering services to remote rural areas. That would be lost if there were breakup.

For now, answers to all these questions rests mainly on speculation. What is clear is that Scotland is at a crossroads. Today's vote will decide which direction it heads in for at least the next four years and possibly many years to come.

Few would disagree with Mr. McConnell's assessment. "This is a huge election, probably the most important election there's been in Scotland for at least a generation and the outcome will have consequences for years to come."

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