US to meet Iraq's neighbors, but sectarian divisions remain deep
Sunnis and Shiites are split as officials prepare to gather in Egypt to discuss Iraq's future.
from the May 3, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
US to appeal to nations' self-interest
Perhaps sensing this reality, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to appeal to self-interest when she enlists the help of Iraq's neighbors in stabilizing Iraq, in particular at Friday's meeting focusing on security.
According to State Department officials, Dr. Rice will emphasize that aiding Iraq's stabilization – for example by closing borders to foreign fighters from around the Muslim world – is not so much aimed at saving the US from a military quagmire or even propping up the Iraqi government as it is about quelling violence that could spread and destabilize the region.
Still, Sunni governments appear to be putting their emphasis elsewhere. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt are not happy with the way Iraq's Sunnis have been treated under the Shiite-led Maliki government, Mr. Shteiwi says. That may explain the Saudi king's weekend snub of Maliki, but Shteiwi also notes that Jordan's King Abdullah expressed his concerns two years ago about the consequences of a rising "Shiite crescent" led by Iran.
Other analysts see other factors at work. "These [Sunni] regimes do not like to see majority rule and democracy implanted in Iraq," says Abdul-Reda Assiri, a political scientist at the University of Kuwait. "They are coming from a pan-Arabist position that it should be a minority rule." And to support that, he adds, the Sunni neighbors "are playing to propagate the thinking that Shiite rule is a failure to Iraq."
Iran's regional role
Still, Mr. Assiri says it is "very positive" that Iraq, its neighbors, and other major powers will meet for two days. Of particular interest is the fact that high officials from the US and Iran will both participate, with Rice saying she does not "rule out" a face-to-face encounter with her Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki.
"Iran, and to a lesser extent [Syria], are the key to changing the conditions in Iraq, and unless the US comes to terms with them, there's not too much chance that assembling the neighbors can make much difference," says Shteiwi. Noting recent reports of back-channel contacts between the US and Iran, he adds, "There are some indications [the US] could go in that direction or at least start the process."
Thursday's meeting is expected to produce an international "compact for Iraq," though its final form may not be all the Iraqis and the US had hoped for. The idea was to deliver 100 percent debt relief, reconstruction assistance, and broad international support for the Iraqi government in exchange for Iraqi commitments to fulfill a list of actions including oil-revenue sharing among major population groups, political reconciliation measures, disbanding of militias, and constitutional reform.
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