US to meet Iraq's neighbors, but sectarian divisions remain deep

Iran's regional role

Still, Mr. Assiri says it is "very positive" that Iraq, its neighbors, and other major powers will meet for two days. Of particular interest is the fact that high officials from the US and Iran will both participate, with Rice saying she does not "rule out" a face-to-face encounter with her Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki.

"Iran, and to a lesser extent [Syria], are the key to changing the conditions in Iraq, and unless the US comes to terms with them, there's not too much chance that assembling the neighbors can make much difference," says Shteiwi. Noting recent reports of back-channel contacts between the US and Iran, he adds, "There are some indications [the US] could go in that direction or at least start the process."

Thursday's meeting is expected to produce an international "compact for Iraq," though its final form may not be all the Iraqis and the US had hoped for. The idea was to deliver 100 percent debt relief, reconstruction assistance, and broad international support for the Iraqi government in exchange for Iraqi commitments to fulfill a list of actions including oil-revenue sharing among major population groups, political reconciliation measures, disbanding of militias, and constitutional reform.

In that sense the compact resembles the "benchmarks" sought by the US Congress in exchange for a continued US military presence in Iraq.

Yet while a number of countries have agreed to some debt relief – Saudi Arabia notably agreed to write off 80 percent of the $15 billion in Iraqi debt it holds – resistance to fully forgiving the debt of an oil-rich country remains strong. In addition, countries like Kuwait and Iran continue to seek billions of dollars in reparations for wars from the Saddam Hussein era.

Telltale signs of regional rifts remained apparent up to the eve of the conference. An Arab-backed draft of the compact called for "constructive steps towards reviewing and amending" the constitution and the "de-Baathification" law that threw thousands of Iraqi Sunnis out of their jobs. But a version Iraq supports only calls for a "review' of the constitution and does not mention de-Baathification.

The divisions show the difficulties of trying to foster a regional diplomatic process – one of the top recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. But some experts still see a key role for neighboring countries in motivating Iraqis to take some reconciliation measures lacking so far.

"Use the regional leverage and that would really bring fear, and maybe then they will move on and compromise on some of these critical issues," says Laith Kubba, a top aide to former Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari who is now at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington. "The Kurds fear Turkey ....The Shiites fear the Arab presence in all its weight .... The Sunnis are afraid of Iran," he adds. "It's a way to get all of them thinking in national terms."

And prompting Iraqis to act more like a nation might be one of the more useful influences the neighbors could have, analysts say. "The nature of the Iraqi government just now is part of the problem. It acts mostly like a collection of political parties and sectarian powers," says Shteiwi. "What Iraq needs is a national leader who acts like he is leading a state rather than a party."

Page: 1 | 2