Cuba's May Day goes on – without Castro

On Tuesday, the country's ailing leader missed his third May Day in his 48 years of power.

from the May 2, 2007 edition

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While much in Cuba has remained the same in the nine months that Raúl Castro, the leader's brother, has headed the country, small signs have signaled a new willingness to restructure the way the state is run, says Philip Peters, vice president and Cuba expert at the Lexington Institute near Washington. That includes Raúl Castro's criticism of chronic problems such as transportation, agricultural production, and housing. "Raúl Castro has been expressing tremendous impatience," says Mr. Peters.

The criticism, which normally take the form of exposés in Granma or speeches in front of the National Assembly, are by no means major departures from the status quo. But it is the kind of self-criticism to which Cubans are not accustomed.

"If a government spends enough time talking about severe problems in their economy, at some point they have to come up with a solution," says Peters. "In that sense, he is creating expectation for change."

Juan Carlos, who was watching the May Day parade pass, expressed that sentiment. "This country is changing slowly, but it's changing," he says. He worries about political instability ahead. "I'm afraid that a dramatic change could occur if those people that oppose the party decide to stand up."

Castro unlikely ever to assume full control

But few say that any major changes will take place in Cuba while Castro is alive. His public image as the face of the Cuban Revolution remains infallible.

Castro will also continue to vex the US as long as he maintains close ties with Mr. Chávez, who announced on May Day that Venezuela will take more control of projects in the Orinoco Belt, where some of the world's biggest oil companies operate.

"The days of Fidel standing in front of a crowd for four hours, those days are over," says Eric Driggs, a research associate at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. Even if he had shown up for the parade Tuesday, or resurfaces at a later date, "it does not change the fact that his ability to lead the country is compromised."

"As long as [Castro] is on the margins, Raúl is not going to make any significant reform that flies in the face of Fidel's vision of the revolution," he adds.

Among Cubans, his absence, while disheartening, was one more small step toward a new way of life in this island nation.

"Fidel is unlike any other leader. He didn't discriminate. He shook hands with everybody, black, white, young, old," says Urbano Alejandro, who has worked in a metal-can factory for 30 years. "Fidel is getting old. I don't think that he'll come back. I trust Raúl, though."

• A reporter in Havana contributed to this report.

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