Ethnic spat heats up Pakistan-Iran border

Whatever the case, Jundallah's campaign of violence peaked in February, when its operatives killed 13 Revolutionary Guards, a highly publicized and stinging blow. Iran struck back by publicly hanging a suspect held responsible and arresting several more. Apparently unfazed, Jundallah abducted four Iranian policemen, three of whom were later recovered in Pakistan. Now, following Tehran's sweeping arrests, many wonder how Jundallah is holding up.

Jundallah's organizers were incited by Iranian and Pakistani state policies that do not extend equity to minority communities, some observers say. "The lesson is for states to understand that you can't target whole communities and expect not to see a response. This is exactly the Pakistani tactic as well. This is going to lead to more alienation, more confrontation," says Ms. Ahmed.

But some also see the fighting as a dimension of the growing divide between Sunnis and Shiites that appears to have transcended national borders.

"This is sectarian," says Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a political science professor at Lahore University of Management Sciences. "Sunni organizations content on challenging Iranian influence in Pakistan would like to open up another front in Iran, which has been untouched by the sectarianism that is affecting Pakistan.

"The regional implications are going to be very serious for Pakistan," Mr. Rais adds. "Pakistan-Iranian relations are likely to deteriorate. Iran is likely to encourage the sectarian aspect in Pakistan."

It's an alarm bell that Islamabad denies hearing. "This cannot cause tension. [Iran and Pakistan] are on the same page about it. We are working together," says Tasneem Aslam, the Foreign Ministry's spokesperson. The problems on the border are not due to clashes with militants based in Pakistan, she says, but are an issue of armed gangs operating on the border.

Tehran certainly doesn't see it that way. After its Revolutionary Guards were killed, Iran immediately pointed a finger across the border at Pakistan.

"Though Pakistan is our neighbor, little by little it is losing its neighborly manners. Pakistan has become a haven of terrorists who kill people in Zahedan," influential Iranian cleric Hojatoleslam Ahmed Khatami said on Iranian state radio, referring to the province where the attack took place.

Finger-pointing across the border is nothing new. Tehran has long held Pakistan responsible for the incubation of the Taliban, which killed nine Iranian diplomats in Afghanistan in 1998. Tehran has also blamed Washington for the violence, drawing upon ABC and other media reports that have suggested secret US backing. Whether the reports are true or not, American analysts have long advised that Baloch separatists are a viable option to be used for exerting diplomatic pressure on Tehran.

But the long-term regional implications of such a strategy, critics argue, are likely to outweigh short-term benefits.

"It could unleash much darker forces of nationalism and religious zealotry that could plunge the entire region into years if not decades of bloody crises," wrote Amir Taheri, an Iranian-born journalist, in a January editorial in the Arab News.

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