Ukraine's latest revolt hews 'Blue'

Protesters have hit the streets this week amid a constitutional crisis that has caused political gridlock.

from the April 17, 2007 edition

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MOSCOW - The demonstrators camped out this week on Kiev's Independence Square are far fewer than the throngs of 2004's Orange Revolution – the two-week-long mass protest that overturned a rigged election, allowed the movement's leader, Viktor Yushchenko, to become president, and seemed to secure a democratic future for Ukraine.

This time, the tent city on Kiev's main street is festooned with the blue banners of the Orange Revolution's opponents, and the nightly rallies are filled with ringing denunciations of Mr. Yushchenko's "undemocratic" and "power-grubbing" behavior.

Despite the relative paucity of demonstrators compared with 2004, experts say this is Ukraine's most serious crisis yet. Even though the general population remains largely uninvolved, the threat of a national breakup looks increasingly real.

"This is a fight between the leaders and their most active supporters, but it has already gone too far," says Oleksandr Shushko, an expert with the independent Institute for Euro-Atlantic Integration in Kiev. "It's becoming clear that our current constitutional model is not workable at all."

Opinion polls suggest that two years of constitutional gridlock have left most Ukrainians exhausted and disillusioned with political leaders of every stripe who never seem to do anything but squabble. Yushchenko's early-April decree ordering the Blue-dominated parliament, the Supreme Rada, to disband and face new elections on May 27, is opposed by nearly 60 percent of Ukrainians, according to a recent survey by the independent Sofia Social Studies Center in Kiev. Yet that poll does not appear to reflect support for the Blue forces, led by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who have hunkered down in the Rada and refused to obey the president. Several polls released last week suggest that Mr. Yanukovich's Party of Regions, based in the Russified east, enjoys the backing of no more than 35 percent of voters – the same percentage with which it won in parliamentary polls a year ago.

Before the crisis erupted in early April, Yanukovich had been fortifying his parliamentary majority by inducing deputies from the two pro-democracy Orange parties to cross the floor. Yanukovich had bragged that by summer his coalition would have 300 members in the 450-seat Rada – the magic number required to override presidential vetoes. Yushchenko reacted to his depleting ranks on April 2, when he accused the Blue parties of bribing Orange lawmakers, dispersed the Rada, and ordered fresh elections.

"The key issue here is that the only democratic way of getting out of this deep crisis ... lies in new elections," Yushchenko said on Wednesday in an interview with Radio Free Europe.

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