Ecuador backs leftist changes

"The temptation [for Correa] to go the Chavista route will be great, particularly due to Correa's stated desire to effect broad change," says Mr. Capello. "As Chávez and others have proven, it is possible to more rapidly effect great social change if one circumvents the restrictions of representative democratic institutions."

Carlos Larreátegui, head of Ecuador's Christian Democrat Union (UDC), voted against the referendum. "There isn't a reform agenda," he says. "Rather, this is an instrument for the concentration of power, as happened in Venezuela. Changes need to be made in Ecuador, but the Constitution does not need to be changed."

Despite comparisons to Chavez, however, analysts point out that Correa will have a much harder time consolidating power, due to less oil money and a more formidable political opposition.

Vote boosts Correa's mandate

In many ways, Sunday's vote was a referendum on Correa's popularity. The president, who during his campaign promised to close down a US military base in Ecuador, dismissed free trade talks with the US, and called the current political establishment a group of "political mafias," has enjoyed over a 70 percent approval rating.

Says Polibio Cordova, the head of the Cedatos-Gallup polling firm: "The population rejects the 'politqueria,' " a term combining the word "politics" and the Spanish word for "garbage." "Correa says that after the Assembly, there will be no more 'politqueria' in Ecuador."

That is why Margarita Romero voted "yes" to the referendum. "I don't know if they will fulfill their promises," she says. "Correa might be like Chávez. But the congressional representatives don't do anything, they steal our money. They are earning on the backs of the people, and the poor don't get any help from anyone."

Whether this new chapter in brings real change is the question now. Correa has offered little detail on how he'll root out corruption.

"Most of the people don't know what the referendum is about," says Adrian Bonilla, a political analyst at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Quito. They don't know the rules of the assembly, or what is going to happen."

In the short term, the vote could ease the politics of confrontation between Correa's government and its opposition, which would be a welcome development in a country that has seen eight presidents in 10 years.

But in the long term, says Bonilla, the country still has weak institutions that must be strengthened if stability is to be achieved, he says. "Throughout Latin America, constitutional assemblies have not resolved the issues they are meant to address, except in the cases where there is a previous consolidation of political wills, and a social pact, as in Colombia and Brazil," he says. "In Ecuadorian society the authoritarian temptations are always present."

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