How North African nations are dealing with Islamist resurgence
Leaders must subdue the Islamist movement without empowering radicals or undercutting moderates, analysts say.
from the April 12, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 3
But popular support and the ability to make social reforms may not translate into making tangible political reforms.
"There is a very definite risk for Islamic parties to participate in a government because the voters will hold them responsible and say 'Why didn't you do more,' but parties that reject violence but at the same time reject political participation, how are they going to have an impact on political process?" says Ms. Ottaway.
Across the African continent, Egypt has taken a very different tack with the Muslim Brotherhood, the powerful Islamist movement that has spread throughout the region.
The group is banned, and its members are routinely rounded up in mass arrests by the government. It has tried to get around curbs on its activities by running independent candidates in parliamentary elections.
Jordan has taken a similar approach, both cracking down and including Islamists. It has allowed the Muslim Brotherhood-inspired Islamic Action Front to participate in parliament.
"The cost the Egyptian regime has been paying for limiting the Muslim Brotherhood has been very low in the short term," says Amr Hamzawy, an Egyptian political scientist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, who, with Ottaway and Nathan Brown wrote a report on Islamist movements last year.
But by stifling the opposition completely, "You risk pushing the groups to be more radical ... you're making them a security risk in the long term and it pushes you farther away from reform," says Mr. Hamzawy.
Two weeks ago, the Egyptian government rushed through changes to the country's Constitution that, among other things, banned political parties based on religion. The move is seen as a strike against the Muslim Brotherhood.
But Egypt has also cracked down on more moderate groups such as the al Wasat party, a more liberal offshoot of the Brotherhood, and smaller, secular groups.
"In Egypt you see a government scared of its own shadow. They are not even allowing the al Wasat party or [secular leader] Ayman Nour so they are creating polarization, and in that situation the only group likely to survive is the Muslim Brotherhood. So they end up in a head-to-head competition with the Brotherhood ... they are not diluting the power of the Muslim Brotherhood," says Ottaway.
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