Chinese premier's visit to Japan marks major thaw

Wen Jiabao will address Japan's Diet, discuss trade, and even play baseball.

from the April 11, 2007 edition

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Despite the extended tensions in political relations, economic ties between the two countries have been thriving. China's trade with Japan in 2006 jumped 12.4 percent from a year earlier, to $207.36 billion – more than double the $101.91 billion recorded in 2002, according to Chinese government figures.

A further sign of the improving economic and political climate was China's decision in January to, in principle, resume imports of Japanese rice. Imports were suspended in 2003, ostensibly over insects being found in the rice, though the decision was widely viewed as having a political element.

However, though economics have helped drive China-Japan relations forward, China's rapidly growing economy presents its own problems.

"The Chinese have been proceeding with a more pragmatic approach because they want to continue their economic growth. But the Senkaku Islands issue has not been resolved, and the problem could actually deepen," says Mr. Beck, referring to an ongoing territorial dispute about the oil-rich islands, which lie southwest of Japan. "The Chinese are going ahead with exploration in the gas fields round there, and this is only going to get worse as China's energy demands skyrocket."

Japan and China have held talks over the issue, but they have failed to reach agreement. And despite efforts at greater cooperation – even in the military sphere, with Chinese naval vessels expected to visit a Japanese port in August – there is still friction both over China's military buildup and Japan's own missile-defense shield plans.

But it is the recurring questions of history that Beck believes could pose the greatest risk to the thawing process currently under way. Despite more measured rhetoric, Wen did call on Abe not to visit Yasukuni shrine. Abe did not say whether he would go, though he is not expected to inflame the relationship with a visit.

Beck also notes that this year marks the 70th anniversary of the Nanjing massacre. "The Japanese leadership therefore needs to be careful about pushing too far with its revisionism," he says.

Beck adds that he remains cautious about the ability of Asia's two dominant powers to maintain their current course "I assume that pragmatism will prevail. But the wild card will be Nanjing."

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