Might Iran deal on nukes, too?
Tehran showed some geopolitical skill in the manner in which it conducted itself during the prisoner crisis, say experts.
from the April 6, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 3
George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment says that Iran is like other countries that have progressed relatively far down the nuclear road. It is not clear yet whether Iran's leaders have decided that they want nuclear weapons. In fact, they probably have not yet reached the point where that decision must be made.
"But they want the capability to make that decision at some point. They've decided they'd like the option," says Perkovich.
In addition, Iran's leaders appear to truly believe that what they are doing is within the parameters of the world's nonproliferation regime. Developing the capacity to enrich uranium is a right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, they say.
But that's so only if the country in question doesn't violate other IAEA strictures, notes Perkovich. And Iran has indeed committed violations, he says, through such actions as concealing aspects of its enrichment program.
Iran's nuclear efforts appear to have widespread domestic support. The country has even issued currency featuring nuclear symbols.
Meanwhile, the turmoil in Iraq has weakened the US hand, even as Washington tries to increase pressure on Tehran through such actions as the seizure of Iranians on Iraqi territory, according to Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Saban Center for Middle East Policy.
A multilateral strategy that presses Iran economically, and tries to isolate it diplomatically might work, said Mr. Byman in testimony delivered to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on March 15.
But it also might not convince Iran to deal away its nuclear ambitions.
"Washington also must prepare for the possibility that its best efforts will not sway Iranian leaders," Byman told lawmakers.
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