 |
|
Might Iran deal on nukes, too?
Tehran showed some geopolitical skill in the manner in which it conducted itself during the prisoner crisis, say experts.
from the April 6, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
The British Navy personnel could well have been seized based on a quick decision by a Revolutionary Guard commander in the field. Officials in Tehran perhaps then had to decide how they would exploit, or defuse, the situation.
Hard-liners in Iran pushed for a show trial of their prisoners. But more moderate leaders – or, at least, less extreme ones – appear to have prevailed.
With the prisoners' release, "we saw another indication that this is not a reckless and irrational government," says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Alterman and other experts say it's unlikely the prisoner crisis had anything to do with the problems of Iran's nuclear program, from Tehran's point of view. Given that Iran has scaled back its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and continued to insist that within IAEA rules it has the right to enrich uranium, the last thing Tehran needed was further indication that it is becoming a rogue regime.
Even so, the 13-day crisis had its bumpy moments, from Iran's insistence that the British were within Iranian waters, to the display of the prisoners on television uttering "confessions" that were perhaps coerced.
"It's just a reminder of how hard it is to negotiate with the Iranians," says Alterman of CSIS.
Diplomacy worked in this case, note US experts. But Iran faced a relatively united opposition, from the UN Security Council to the European Union. In the case of Iran's nascent nuclear work, it is not clear opponents are so cohesive.
And while patient engagement may well be the best way to deal with Iran, its nuclear program could be very difficult to stop if it's something that Iranian leaders view as being a preeminent national interest.
RSS feed
