Is US Army bent to the breaking point?

The only other major unit to be sent early to combat is the Georgia-based 3rd Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division, according to Col. Daniel Baggio, an Army spokesman. That unit deployed earlier this year.

Under the operational scenarios used currently for most active-duty forces, a unit should deploy for a period of time – one year for soldiers and seven months for marines – and return home for dwell time for at least that amount of time.

Sustaining this level of effort in Iraq without requiring more extensions or early departures would be a challenge, said Air Force Gen. Lance Smith, the commander of US Joint Forces Command, the unit that provides forces to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"It would be very difficult," he told defense reporters last week. "We can sustain that for a while."

It remains to be seen just why a Defense Department that is trying to do the right thing by its troops – Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced initiatives to help get the services back on track earlier this year – is having to send units that have not been allowed to have the full, 12-month rest at home. There are many factors that go into deciding which units will go to combat, said chief Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman on Monday.

"This is a reflection that this is a military that is in conflict, and we obviously are using a significant portion of the force," he said. "It is a reflection of the realities that exist right now."

It's all a sign of trouble, says Barry McCaffrey, a retired Army four-star general who recently returned from another fact-finding trip to Iraq. The Defense Department's readiness ratings, which are classified, are starting to decline, he says, and ground combat equipment "is shot" in both the active and reserve components, he asserts.

Recruiting challenges are mounting, as the Army is having to recruit individuals they wouldn't allow otherwise. The US is at the "knee of the curve," Mr. McCaffrey says. "There is no argument of whether the US Army is rapidly unraveling."

But if retention is one of the best measures of the overall health of the military, then maybe the military is not breaking as much as some say it is: Retention rates, so far, remain high, says Mr. Rostker. Rostker, who has his doubts about whether the surge of forces will work in Iraq, nevertheless believes most troops support President Bush. He also believes that a premature withdrawal of forces from Iraq would hurt morale much more than repeated deployments.

"Logic tells you that there is a point of no return, but what has been amazing is that we haven't found that point yet," he says. "God forbid we find it."

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