Why Bush seems unable to regain his footing
An unpopular war and recent scandals have worsened the usual presidential second-term blues.
from the April 2, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
Still, particularly in the current showdown over legislation to fund the Iraq war, the Democrats face political risks, too. If a bill is not signed by April 15, the Pentagon says, the troops will start to suffer. If the stalemate drags on much beyond that date, with visible consequences on the ground in Iraq, the Democrats could face blame.
But in the larger scheme, anytime public debate focuses on Iraq, Bush is likely to wind up on the losing side.
"He may have a good day on the Iraq funding bill, if [Nancy] Pelosi and [Harry] Reid overstep or if they misspeak," says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, referring to the top Democrats in Congress. "But what I think is producing the president's low poll ratings are facts on the ground in Iraq."
Paul Light, a presidential scholar at New York University, sees the typical arc of an eight-year presidency playing out: The moment the president takes his second oath of office, the seeds of scandal planted in the first term begin to sprout. It happened with Reagan (Iran-contra) and it happened with Clinton (Monica Lewinsky).
"There's a reason we don't have books on second-term presidencies – except on second-term presidential scandals," says Mr. Light.
Light also notes that in the modern political construct, an unpopular second-term president has very little on which to trade, in terms of control over his party or its financial largesse.
"He has no money and a Democratic Congress that's watching every move he makes," says Light. "I would say that people are no longer afraid of him, and moreover, people no longer believe he can help them in any sort of substantive way."
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