Why Bush seems unable to regain his footing

Paul Light, a presidential scholar at New York University, sees the typical arc of an eight-year presidency playing out: The moment the president takes his second oath of office, the seeds of scandal planted in the first term begin to sprout. It happened with Reagan (Iran-contra) and it happened with Clinton (Monica Lewinsky).

"There's a reason we don't have books on second-term presidencies – except on second-term presidential scandals," says Mr. Light.

Light also notes that in the modern political construct, an unpopular second-term president has very little on which to trade, in terms of control over his party or its financial largesse.

"He has no money and a Democratic Congress that's watching every move he makes," says Light. "I would say that people are no longer afraid of him, and moreover, people no longer believe he can help them in any sort of substantive way."

He makes the contrast with an earlier era, when President Johnson – even at the end of his term, a political lameduck stuck in the quagmire of Vietnam – still controlled the Democratic National Committee and its flow of money. That explains, in part, why Vice President Humphrey waited so long to break with Johnson on Vietnam.

In addition, Bush has seen members of his inner circle leave the administration one by one – some under a cloud -- to be replaced by professionals whose loyal- ties may be as much to their own reputations and to the future of the Republican Party than to Bush personally: Bob Gates as Defense secretary, Josh Bolten as White House chief of staff, and Fred Fielding as White House counsel.

Mr. Gates and Mr. Bolten, in particular, did not hesitate to make personnel changes right out of the block. Gates especially has contrasted his tenure with that of his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld, by firing top Army brass over the Walter Reed scandal, in contrast with the way Mr. Rumsfeld handled the Abu Ghraib prison scandal.

For Bush personally, the biggest arrow of late may have come in Sunday's New York Times, which featured a critical interview with a top strategist of Bush's reelection campaign, Matthew Dowd. In the interview, the first public break with Bush by a member of his inner circle, Mr. Dowd spoke of his disappointment with Bush's leadership and his "my way or the highway" approach, which contrasted with his days as Texas governor.

"I think he's become more, in my view, secluded and bubbled in," Dowd said.

Such a harsh public assessment by a once-trusted aide would have been unthinkable even a year ago, when the GOP was strategizing for the midterm elections. But now, with his last election as president behind him, and his job approvals stuck in the mid-30s, there is less reason than ever for critics to hold back.

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