High-stakes face-off over ending Iraq war

The Senate vote Tuesday to set an exit date for US troops complicates Bush's strategy.

from the March 29, 2007 edition

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"The president is almost completely encircled, and his one avenue of escape is the veto," says Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J. "This may signal a period in his presidency when the veto becomes his principal communication with Congress."

The one point all sides agree on is the need to get funding to the Pentagon in the next few weeks. Citing comments by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Republicans say cutbacks will begin on April 15 if Congress does not act to supply funding. Democrats, also citing the Defense secretary, say the crunch date is May 1.

In a roundtable with reporters on March 22, Secretary Gates warned of "disruption to key programs." If the supplemental funding bill does not clear Congress by April 15, the Pentagon will be forced to consider moves ranging from slowing the training of units slated to deploy to Iraq and Afghanistan to cutting funding for barracks renovation. If funds are not in the pipeline by May 15, Gates said, the tours of those serving in Iraq may have to be extended because other units are not ready to take their place.

House and Senate Democratic leaders met before Tuesday's Senate vote about how to get funds to the troops as quickly as possible. With the Senate out next week and the House for the next two weeks, the earliest a public conference could meet is mid-April, but lawmakers say private discussions are already under way.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid called on the president to "give us some ideas how we can satisfy the wishes of the majority of the Senate, the majority of the House and move forward and complete this bill as quickly as we con."

On Wednesday, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R) of Kentucky said the sooner lawmakers get a bill to Bush, prompting a veto, the sooner "we can get serious about passing a bill to get money to the troops."

Democrats are already talking about elements of a compromise, whether before or after a presidential veto. There's support in both parties for benchmarks for the Iraqi government to meet. Some lawmakers float the idea that timelines could be set but not made public. "Timelines, whether they're public or private, we'll work that detail out," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) of Illinois on Tuesday.

With a two-thirds majority required in both houses to overturn a veto, Bush can force another round of legislating on the war-funding bill. But the standoff risks alienating the public and jeopardizing what's left of Bush's legislative agenda.

"The Senate vote is an indication that the president is going to find it extremely difficult to build a bipartisan coalition in favor of his policies in Iraq," says John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif.

• Staff writer Gordon Lubold contributed to this report.

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