US hawks see strikes on Iran as less likely now

At the same conference, which was sponsored by the RAND Corporation, a think tank with close ties to the American military establishment, Ken Pollack, another supporter of the Iraq invasion, said he favors keeping the pressure on Iran with sanctions, which he thinks could work in containing their nuclear program if Iran sees that the social and economic costs are high enough.

He sees military action as an absolute last resort, and worries that Iran could easily tie up US forces in Iraq – where the US alleges many of the Shiite militias closely cooperate with Tehran. "We need to think about Iraq before we go off on some half-cocked military action against Iran,'' Mr. Pollack says.

To be sure, there are still real risks of an eventual escalation. The UN Security Council on Saturday backed a package of sanctions against Iran that includes a ban on Iranian arms exports and a freezing of the assets abroad of 28 individuals and organizations involved in the country's nuclear program.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned about the planned sanctions last week, saying that if big powers via the Security Council took "illegal actions" and ignored the Islamic Republic's rights, "we can also carry out illegal actions and we will do that." He insisted Iran would continue with efforts to enrich uranium – a fuel needed for both nuclear reactors, but that could also be used to make a weapon.

David Ochmanek, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for strategy and now a defense analyst at RAND, argues that the logic of seeking nuclear weapons from the Iranian perspective is compelling – and America's desire to stop that just as urgent.

He says Iran's conventional military, particularly its Air Force and anti-aircraft batteries "are really a museum" and that its recent history – a ruinous war with Iraq in the 1980s in which Sunni Arab regimes, and at times the US, supported Iraq – has convinced it to rely on itself rather than international forums when it comes to its defense.

In that context, nuclear weapons have a "unique deterrent value" and he argues that strikes on Iranian facilities today would probably lead Iran to "redouble its efforts" to acquire a bomb.

Of course, Iran insists that its nuclear program is entirely for peaceful energy purposes. Speaking by video link because the US won't allow him to leave New York, Iranian Ambassador to the UN Javad Zarif disputed the belief of strategists like Mr. Ochmanek that a nuclear weapon would be attractive for Iran.

"Nuclear weapons won't help Iran," he said. They would "increase our vulnerabilities and decrease our influence ... nuclear deterrence for Iran is just a myth."

Nevertheless, Mr. Zarif maintained the insistent Iranian line that it needs to be able to produce nuclear fuel on its soil. He said that "everyone knows... sanctions will not reach the intended result" and turned a favorite saying of former President Ronald Reagan's by describing the attitude of the two countries towards one another as "mistrust and verify."

Zarif said suggestions by some UN diplomats that a compromise could be reached – in which an international consortium would promise to supply Iran with nuclear fuel produced abroad – are unacceptable, though he implied that an agreement to produce fuel in Iran with international oversight might be acceptable, though this is an outcome the US says it won't accept.

For now, diplomacy is taking its course. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said Tuesday he aimed to continue talks with Iran's top nuclear negotiator early next week.

"There's no guarantee that diplomatic options will succeed," says Mr. Pollack. "But [they're] likeliest to succeed.

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