Big powers jockey for oil in Central Asia
The US, Russia, China, and others have a military or business presence.
from the March 28, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
West seeks Russia-free energy
On Tuesday and Wednesday this week, a delegation of European Union officials, led by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is meeting with foreign ministers of five Central Asian states in the Kazakh capital, Astana, to discuss deepening ties. The EU has declared an "Energy Dialogue" with Central Asia a key foreign policy goal, as part of a general effort to wean Europe from a perceived overdependence on Russian supplies. That coincides with US purposes in the region and, experts say, this is the main play to watch as the game develops.
"The Central Asian countries are still very much locked into the Russian pipelines and infrastructure and must sell their oil and gas to world markets on Russian terms," says Ivan Saffranchuk, Moscow director of the independent World Security Institute. "The Western idea is that these countries will have real sovereignty only when they are able to independently sell their resources."
The US strongly backed the recently opened $4 billion Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries Caspian oil to the West without Russian participation. Mr. Suslov says that Washington is urging hydrocarbon-rich Kazakhstan to break free from Russia's grip and build links to the Baku- Ceyhan network. China has recently managed to buy a key Kazakh oil company and in 2005 a 1,000-mile pipeline began carrying Kazakh crude to China. It reportedly has plans to extend the pipeline westward by 2011 to funnel Caspian oil eastward.
Fears of instability, Islamist influence
Two years ago this week a lightning revolution overthrew Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev, and the little mountain state has been mired in unrest ever since. A few weeks later a putative Islamist uprising at Andijon, Uzbekistan, was brutally put down by forces loyal to Uzbek strongman Islam Karimov. That rang alarm bells about the dangers of regionwide destabilization.
"These are very weak states that cannot provide social services or justice to their populations," says Irina Zvigelskaya, a regional expert at the official Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow. "The Islamists are moving into this vacuum, and creating a real long-term challenge to stability in Central Asia."
Thousands of alleged members of the banned Islamist organization Hizb ut-Tahrir have been arrested in several regional countries in the past two years. Experts say the group, which calls for a single Muslim Caliphate, is increasingly active – particularly in the multiethnic and impoverished Fergana Valley, which spills across the borders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
"Hizb ut-Tahrir is a very radical movement, which many people believe has taken root in Uzbekistan and is spreading around the region from there," says Parviz Mullojanov, director of the Public Committee for Democratic Process, a Tajik NGO. He says a combination of poverty, weak government, and huge numbers of young, jobless males in the Fergana have created a perfect storm for Islamist movements. "If economic conditions worsen, this could become the problem of our future," he adds.
Ms. Zvigelskaya cites unofficial studies that indicate drug money could make up a third of local economies. Some experts say there's a danger that drug lords and Muslim militants, who share hostility to state authority, will make common cause to undermine local governments.
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