Violence tests soft strategy in Thailand's Muslim south

Six months after seizing power and pledging a new, conciliatory strategy to tackle violence in the Muslim-dominated south, Thailand's military rulers are struggling to stay the course.

A spike in brutal attacks on Buddhist and Muslim civilians has inflamed communal tensions and piled pressure on overstretched security forces to stem the killings, which authorities blame on separatist rebels. The death toll has risen sharply this year after a lull in the aftermath of the Sept. 19 coup. Last month was among the deadliest on record after 28 coordinated bombings struck Chinese New Year celebrations across four provinces.

The violence puts Thailand's military-installed government in a quandary: Wielding a heavy hand against an underground insurgency could further alienate Muslims whose support is crucial to rooting out rebels. But failing to stop brazen attacks on Buddhists undercuts the new regime's legitimacy and its promise of a peaceful solution to the conflict. About 95 percent of Thailand's 64 million people are Buddhist, but in the south, they are an embattled, dwindling minority.

The March 15 execution-style murders of nine Buddhist bus passengers – the Muslim driver was spared by the gunmen after he reportedly knelt to pray – sparked national outrage and rallies in several cities. Protesters held signs urging greater protection for Thais against "terrorists" in the south. In turn, Muslims were riled by apparent revenge attacks, including a bomb attack outside a mosque and a deadly tea-shop shooting, that occurred on the same day as the bus massacre.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, a retired Army commander, has acknowledged that interfaith tensions are straining his conciliatory stance. He told reporters on a March 21 visit to the area that he was concerned by the rift between communities. "We will have to find the cause of these misunderstandings and fix them," he said.

Analysts say that he has little choice, if a political solution is to emerge from the violence. The insurgents are "trying to send a message. They don't accept a soft or peaceful approach from the government. Their message is that this policy is a failure," says Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a political scientist at Prince of Songkhla University in Pattani.

Mr. Surayud has won praise for his willingness to admit and correct past mistakes – including a public apology for the deaths of 78 Muslim men in Army custody in 2004 and increased compensation paid to victims' families. He has also ordered the release of suspects on bail in high-profile cases and told security forces to use peaceful means in resolving disputes.

But despite the best efforts of the new Thai leadership, the fighting has led to the deaths of some 2,100 people since 2004. Of those, more than 400 have died since the September coup.

But parallel efforts to broker peace talks with insurgent groups, an initiative supported by neighboring Malaysia, have run aground. Analysts say the splintered insurgency is either incapable or unwilling to enter formal negotiations.

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