Can McCain recover in race for GOP nomination?

No. 2 behind Giuliani in national polls, the senator faces hurdles that include his position on the Iraq war.

from the March 27, 2007 edition

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As a candidate, McCain faces several strikes against him, including his age, his past health struggles, his image among conservatives as "unreliable" on their issues, and the fact that he ran before, which makes it hard to seem fresh. But his biggest obstacle appears to be the Iraq war, and his decision to hew closely to the president's approach, analysts say.

"The Republicans are in the trenches with their heads down in the dirt. It's just one bad thing after another," says Dick Bennett, president of ARG. "What they really want is a candidate who will say, 'It's OK to stand up and brush the dirt off. I'll get you out of this.' McCain has tremendous viability, because he can do that. But so far, he has been reluctant."

Giuliani's liberal positions on social issues also make him suspect as a front-runner. For now, he is winning votes in the polls because of his image of leadership from 9/11, but conservative dissatisfaction with the GOP field means a fair amount of churn may still lie ahead – including the possible addition of Thompson and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as candidates.

The irony is that while the possible addition of still more candidates reflects dissatisfaction with McCain as the establishment favorite, it could also split the opposition to him and allow him to rise again to front-runner status. But McCain needs to finish the process of redefining himself, analysts say.

In 2000, as the "maverick" who appealed widely to independents and conservative Democrats in New Hampshire and other early primary states, this time around he has lost his independent and Democratic support. His transition from maverick to establishment had the effect of blurring his image.

"In redefining himself, he undefined John McCain," says independent pollster John Zogby.

But beneath that reality, there are some positive signs for McCain. He is getting the mainstream endorsements in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, another key early primary contest. "And that's what makes him more credible this time than what any of the polls would show," says Mr. Zogby.

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