Leong a long shot for top Hong Kong post

"These elections have not changed the system, but they have changed peoples' expectations of the people in power," argues Christine Loh, head of a local think tank called Civic Exchange. "They have created a new political culture, and Alan Leong has done a great service to all of us."

The debates, in which the candidates took questions from reporters, politicians, and members of the public, "kindled a lot of interest in the community," says George Cautherley, a member of Leong's campaign team. Shopping malls broadcast the debates on giant screens and nearly two million of Hong Kong's seven million residents tuned in.

"In Chinese history we have never seen the sitting leader of such a high entity being questioned by the public and challenged by an opponent in front of the media," says Michael DeGolyer, who teaches politics at the Baptist University of Hong Kong.

It was during the second debate, facing Leong's demand for universal suffrage when the next chief executive elections are held in 2012, that Tsang pledged to "thoroughly resolve the problem of direct elections in five years." Hong Kong's Basic Law, which serves as a constitution, set direct elections through universal suffrage as an "ultimate aim" but set no timetable.

"More people are asking themselves why they are deprived of the vote," says Leong. "There's an awakening, and this will provide new impetus to the democratic movement in Hong Kong."

Whether the democrats will be able to capitalize on this, says Chris Yeung, political columnist with the South China Morning Post, is unclear. "It depends on whether there is universal suffrage in 2012 ... and it depends on the democratic opposition making significant progress toward being more mature and well organized," he says. "There are big question marks from both these perspectives."

There are also doubts about how much success the democrats can enjoy while Hong Kong's powerful business community turns its back on them. Not one of the 132 nominations that Leong received from members of the electoral committee came from a member of the business sector.

"Businesspeople ask who can do better for them," says Ma Lik, Chairman of the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong. "They choose the candidate who can benefit them, who can win."

That pragmatism, argues Mr. Cautherley, also explains why Leong has never attracted more than 21 percent support in public opinion polls during the campaign, compared to scores of over 60 percent for his opponent.

"The people know who is going to win so they say they would vote for Donald Tsang," Cautherley says. "They realize too that Alan has no background in how to govern. But next time around, if there is universal suffrage, he could be quite a formidable opponent."

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