Move over, iPhone: here comes 3G

Next-generation wireless networks will transform your cellphone into a wallet, entertainment center, computer, TV, or airline ticket.

from the March 21, 2007 edition

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"WiMAX is a bit off in the distance," says Mr. Gartenberg of Jupiter. "Wi-Fi is ubiquitous these days, but it's a problem once you leave your home or office, and finding hot spots can be a nuisance. This is where 3G has an advantage: You can connect anywhere. It's good news for consumers – if the price is right."

But those new 3G networks will also initiate some dubious changes. Companies will try to use your cellphone to influence your personal decisions (a field of study known as "mobile persuasion"). For example, if you drive or walk past a McDonald's, you might receive a sudden cellphone message from the golden arches offering you a price break on a burger.

While new cellphones will increasingly operate like small computers in your pocket, they'll look less and less like, well, cellphones. The mobile phone is increasingly seen as a fashion accessory, which means new designs are being turned out rapidly.

One designer last year created a cellphone that could be converted into an alarm clock or a wristwatch. Another one features no buttons – you just lift it up to your face and it answers or initiates a call.

Nothing comes for free. Once an item crosses the digital Rubicon into fashion-accessory territory, it almost always means a higher price. Everyone will need a new phone capable of accessing 3G. And we'll probably have to pay more for the mobile services people use.

Price still remains a key factor for many Americans when it comes to buying a new cellphone, say market analysts. "Unless carriers are offering compelling applications, consumers are reluctant to pay for these new services," says Gartenberg. "Some can cost you $20 to $60 [per month] extra, depending on what you want."

Still, even with higher prices, many communications companies anticipate widespread adoption of 3G in the next five years.

Gartenberg points out that as the price for 3G service falls, as inevitably happens with all new technology, the number of people using the technology will increase. The widespread adoption of broadband service illustrates that point, and also shows that Americans want fast Internet connections.

Perhaps such demand will arrive for cellphones, too. And if that day arrives, making a phone call may be the last thing you'll do on a cellphone.

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