A diplomatic shift jells in last leg of Bush term
The White House is tailoring its policies to better fit international realities, analysts say.
from the March 21, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 3
"The position staked out on Iran initially was so strong, but now there is this effort to batten down the hatches on other issues so we can focus in Iraq," says Dr. Holmes, now director of foreign and defense policy studies at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.
Against seemingly prohibitive odds, Rice has staked out the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an area ready for intense US diplomacy. But even in that realm, experts see external factors – more than a conviction that conditions are ripe for a breakthrough – driving her efforts.
Kupchan says that his "cynical" view is that the administration is using Rice's foray into the conflict to make gains elsewhere.
"This is like a bone thrown to ... [those] who hold the position that addressing this issue is one of the keys to making progress in Iraq," he says, "but it is also directed at the Sunni states in the region [that] we would like to bring on board to help out more in Iraq."
Few experts see any major foreign-policy advances ahead – with the caveat that Iran will be an unpredictable focus that could simply fall into the lap of the next administration – or suddenly jerk back toward confrontation.
The administration "may be able to smooth down the edges [with Iran] a bit, but it would take working out a modus operandi with Iran to really constitute an end-of-term breakthrough," says Henriksen.
Speaking from the vantage point of one who has administration experience, Holmes says he holds out little hope that "a policy of two directions" – isolating at the same time that it is reaching out to antagonists – can work for long.
"I'm not very optimistic it will get us very far," he says, "but the prevailing thought is that it is worth a try."
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