A diplomatic shift jells in last leg of Bush term
The White House is tailoring its policies to better fit international realities, analysts say.
from the March 21, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
Others say the shift is more than tactical. "We're seeing a dramatic change in this president's foreign policy, and though the administration has tried to soft-pedal it so it doesn't look like they've gone in reverse, they clearly have," says Mr. Kupchan.
Central to the changing foreign-policy posture are the changes in the administration, most recently the selection of Robert Gates as secretary of Defense to replace Donald Rumsfeld, a stalwart of the Bush administration's initial unilateralist approach to the world.
That redirection started with the arrival of Ms. Rice at the helm of the State Department in January 2005. But it has been accelerated, experts say, with the arrival of Mr. Gates and the ebbing influence of Vice President Dick Cheney. Gates is seen as a traditional Republican internationalist cut from the cloth of George H.W. Bush.
"Gates replaces a secretary of Defense who was out of touch with what was happening on the ground and with the direction the administration seems to want to go in," says Thomas Henriksen, an expert in US foreign policy at the Hoover Institution in Stanford, Calif.
But some observers say the "old" Bush foreign policy may merely be dormant. They point out that Elliot Abrams, the national security adviser who pushed an aggressive democracy-building agenda and who remains influential on Middle East policy, was critical of the North Korea accord. Some also say that he has sought to undermine engagement with the Palestinians.
Still, Mr. Henriksen says, it's more circumstance than personality that will determine what Bush can accomplish in the remainder of his term. "It's the predicament of Iraq that is largely responsible for the changing approach to foreign policy, and likewise it is Iraq that to a great extent will determine what Bush can do."
The prime example may be Iran.
The administration may have maintained its position toward Iran – no talks until they cease nuclear activity that could lead to a bomb – if not for needing help in Iraq, analysts say.
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