US public's support of Iraq war sliding faster now
Four years after the US invasion, Americans who now regret the war outnumber supporters by 14 percentage points.
from the March 20, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 4
Good news from Iraq has boosted support for the war at different junctures – although temporarily. The capture of Mr. Hussein, elections, and the killing of the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, all caused spikes in war support.
The spikes, say analysts, represent public reevaluation of either the costs or the benefits of the war, or both. Support rose after the first Iraqi election in January 2005. Voter turnout exceeded expectations, boosting Americans' optimism about the prospects for democracy in Iraq.
Optimism about progress plays a big role in the public's weighing of a war's costs and benefits, says Christopher Gelpi, a Duke University professor who studies US public opinion and the use of force.
"The rising costs [of war] matter a lot, if you're not making a lot of progress. The rising costs matter less if you are making a lot of progress," says Professor Gelpi. "There have been a few good events that have punctuated the scene from time to time, but that has all occurred against a steady backdrop of bad news all the time."
Until recently, the war's true believers have not been affected much by that steady drumbeat of bad news.
"Those who think the war is a good idea have a much more optimistic notion of the progress on the ground than those who don't," says Jacobson at UC San Diego. "But among Republicans ... optimism has really slid dramatically since September."
The share of Republicans who say the war is going well has fallen from 77 percent to 51 percent over the past year, according to Pew. That decline in Republicans' optimism spells trouble, according to Gelpi's model, for future support levels of the war.
Others look at the very short-term impact of good news in Iraq and suggest that the rising toll – in the form of casualties – plays a more decisive factor. But the White House can take little comfort in this view, too, because modern US history shows that war support declines over time as casualties mount.
The public-opinion trend lines for the wars in Iraq, Vietnam, and Korea follow a remarkably similar pattern, notes John Mueller, author of "War, Presidents, and Public Opinion." The Iraq war has seen many fewer casualties than the other conflicts, yet public backing has fallen by about the same amount. To Dr. Mueller, that's evidence that the American public values the Iraq conflict less than previous wars.
Those who are steadfast in their commitment to the war find a deeper meaning for it. Brian Green, a truck driver from Jacksonville, Fla., voted for Bush twice and still supports his efforts on the war on terror, a framework into which he says Iraq fits.
But Mr. Green's hopes for success – which would be a stable Iraq and only a few remaining US troops – waver often, depending on events there. "You go back and forth depending on the day," says Green, who votes independent. "But it's still absolutely the correct thing to do."
The one constant – Bush's determination to finish the job – is what inspires Green's support. "People forget how serious this is," he says. "Right now, it's just a popularity contest over who hates Bush more, and that kind of politics is just sickening."
•Patrik Jonsson contributed to this report.
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