Zimbabwe crackdown leads to crisis

Ms. Mujuru's husband, Gen. Solomon Mujuru, reportedly has contacted British, French, and US envoys in recent weeks, causing Mugabe to warn of a possible internal coup attempt.

There is "an insidious dimension where ambitious leaders have been cutting deals with the British and Americans," Mr. Mugabe said on Friday. He also said Western critics of his crackdown "can go hang."

As for the beating of MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai and others, Mugabe was unrepentant. "If they [protest] again, we will bash them again," he said.

Mugabe's strident public utterances have fueled tensions. On Saturday, he accused the opposition of terrorist attacks. "Scores of innocent people going about their legitimate business have fallen prey to terrorist attacks that are part of the desperate and illegal plot to unconstitutionally change the government of the country," he said, in comments carried by the official Sunday Mail.

While many Zimbabweans point to such statements, and his shifting of political heirs from Mujuru to Mnangagwa, as signs that Mugabe is finished, if not unhinged, others say that Mugabe remains firmly in control.

"Mugabe knows that the unifying factor that has kept people loyal is to have elections, and if they have elections in 2008, the ZANU-PF will consolidate around Mugabe, against the MDC," says Chris Maroleng, a leading expert on Zimbabwe at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Tshwane, South Africa.

"This violence is a cyclical thing," says Mr. Maroleng. "Maybe a year out, he starts to arrest or harass the opposition, and maybe four months away from the election, he can ease up on them, but by then the damage is done. What we are seeing is the preparations for the elections of 2008."

In the streets of Zimbabwe's capital, Harare, a tense calm prevails. Official media reports suggested that a state of emergency might be declared. But in townships like Glen View, an unofficial state of emergency already exists, with residents being assaulted by police. Even on First Street, Harare's main shopping street of department stores, cafes, and boutiques, riot police were spotted this past week carrying batons, teargas, and firearms.

In South Africa, pressure for the country to step up criticism of Mugabe is pushing government officials into a defensive mode. "We have constantly maintained that the solutions to the problems of Zimbabwe will be resolved by the people of Zimbabwe," said South African Foreign Affairs Department spokesperson Ronnie Mamoepa.

Yet the MDC's spokesman in South Africa, Kumbulani Sibanda, still holds out hope that South African President Thabo Mbeki will finally speak out against Mugabe. "[Mbeki] is out of the country at the moment, and he hasn't spoken about it yet. Maybe [ANC leaders] are waiting for the president to return before they decide to say something new."

• A reporter who could not be named for security reasons contributed from Harare, Zimbabwe.

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